|
|
#1
10-10-2007, 11:34 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Two questions - one basic, one specific
1) basic - how accurate is the outs *8 after flop, outs *4 after turn = approximate percentage of making your draw formula?
2) specific - I was dealt 3 hands in a row, pair= set, pair=set, pair. what are the odds of 3 pairs in a row, with two of three making sets? 
|
|
#2
10-11-2007, 12:01 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two questions - one basic, one specific
1) Do you mean the 4x rule and the 2x rule ?
2) You hit a pair 3/51 and so the probability you hit a set given you hold a pocket pair is ~ 3/51*2*48c2/50c3 ~0.00677 So 3/51 you are dealt a pocket pair and but you do not hit a set (1 - 2*48c2/50c3) . So we have 3c2*3/51*(1-2*48c2/50c3)*(3/51*2*48c2/50c3)^2 ~ 0.00000715869 or about 7 in 1 million deals .
|
|
#3
10-11-2007, 08:10 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two questions - one basic, one specific
[ QUOTE ]
1) basic - how accurate is the outs *8 after flop, outs *4 after turn = approximate percentage of making your draw formula? [/ QUOTE ] For turn, if you have x outs, you have x/44 chance of hitting, or 2.27%*# of outs. If you know the opponent's hands, it's x/42, or 2.38%*#of outs. For flop, you get 1 - ((45-x/45)*(44-x/44)) of hitting where x is the # of outs knowing no other hole cards assuming you get or lose no outs on turn. For x = 9 (standard FD), P(win) = 36.37%, close to 4*outs.
|
|
#4
10-11-2007, 01:08 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two questions - one basic, one specific
1- yes I meant the 4x/2x rules - and I was just looking at Moshman on SNGs - he says it's largely accurate, but not when you have more than 10 outs - in that case it exaggerates your chances to make your draw.
2- it would be 7 in 1 million sets of three hands.
|
|
#5
10-11-2007, 02:18 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two questions - one basic, one specific
The 4x rule is when you get to see 2 cards; the turn and the river .
The 2x rule is when you get to see 1 card ; either going from flop to turn , or from turn to river . If you have Ah-Kh and the flop is 2h 3h 7c and your opponent has 7c-As . In this case you have about 12 outs . According to pokerstove , the probability Ah-kh wins if he always gets to see both cards is ~ 46% . The 4x rule says the probability should be about 12*4=48% . It's still fairly close . It does start to break down , the higher we go but that's ok because we start to become the favorite anyway . If you have 15 outs , then the probability you hit on the turn or river is 15/47 + 15/47 - 15c2/47c2 ~ 54.1165% The 4x rule says it should be 4*15 =60% . If you have 20 outs , then the probability you hit on the turn or river is 20/47 + 20/47 -20c2/47c2 ~ 67.53% The 4x rule says it should be 20*4 =80% which is way off .
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
