NL$100| Nut FD, odds to call...but should I

[Acevader]

Didn't write villains stats down but the aggressor was a solid TAG and the other guy loose and poor.

I think given the odds the flop is a no-brainer call. (yes, yes, I should c-bet $9-11 here). On the turn I'm getting the correct odds to call on my draw due to the overlay from the poor player but the size of villains bet suggests to me that I may very well be drawing dead already. Who views the turn as a stupid laydown?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $115.95
SB: $105.40
BB: $145.20
Hero (UTG): $100

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, BTN calls $3.50, SB folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($11) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7.50</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $25</font>, BB calls $25, Hero calls $17.50

Turn: ($86) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $30</font>, BB calls $30, Hero folds

River: ($146) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $57.45 and is All-In</font>, BB folds

Results: $146 Pot ($2 Rake)
BTN mucked and WON $144 (+$85.50 NET)

[skibbel]

Instantshoveflop
Just posting to see you negate my opionion :&gt;

All your posts &amp; thinking are resultoriented...

Edit: Changed my opionion, a turn fold might be ok, but i'm unsure. This bet looks strong.

[Nick Royale]

I think this is fine. I don't like shoving the because I doubt you have much fe and you're getting sick odds calling and you have nice implied odds.

[skibbel]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is fine. I don't like shoving the because I doubt you have much fe and you're getting sick odds calling and you have nice implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
The agressor might raise with a king, and "poor loose" guy might have anything, we got good equity here... Why not shove flop? We might have to fold the turn, which sucks imho.

[Hince]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is fine. I don't like shoving the because I doubt you have much fe and you're getting sick odds calling and you have nice implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
The agressor might raise with a king, and "poor loose" guy might have anything, we got good equity here... Why not shove flop? We might have to fold the turn, which sucks imho.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have like zero fold equity, and good implied odds. Why put in more money as an underdog?

[djshawk]

As played I think folding the turn is fine and would probably do the same.

I initially thought 'shove flop' too but looking at it for a bit longer I think Nick is bang on. We're getting great immediate odds, good implied odds, don't have that much FE, if we shove I'd expect at least one of them to call. To make a shove profitable we need something like 35% equity if they both call which I'm sure we have but probably not a lot more than that. By flat calling we get to potentially win a huge pot when we hit, but keep a large part of our stack when we miss, as it's likely we'll be priced out on the turn.

I'm pretty sure this is better than blindy shoving but then I guess it depends on your style.

[Acevader]

First off skibbel I'm not being results orientated because I don't even know the result [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I will shove good draws fairly often on the flop and I defo like the bet-3-bet line when I do it, as it generates a decent amount of fold equity. It is the line I would have taken against the raise if the other player had folded.

However, once the other player called I was sitting facing a call of $17.5 with a pot laying 3.9:1 with a draw to the nuts that almost achieves that and a draw that will achieve that if my overcard is live. I just didn't see the need for a shove especially when you get stupid villains doing the check-flat call here with sets.

As I saw it, the issue on the turn is that yet again I'm getting the correct odds to make a call but I'm no longer drawing to the nuts. It's also looking increasingly likely that fish-villain has some of my FD outs himself. The critical factor for me was that if good-villain had just trips he has to bet for value and to protect his hand (i.e more than he bet!). Offering the correct odds for the draw would be utterly stupid in the circumstances. If, on the other hand, good-villain had raised on a draw himself then surely to god given the action, this is the time to draw it for free. Besides, he must know with a draw he never gets us to both fold to that bet. I figured therefore, he can only bet like that on the turn with a full-house and thus I'd be drawing dead to call.

Pleased to see the general consensus so far is the same; fold turn despite the odds to peel a flush.