NL$100| TPGK, how do i get value on river?

Acevader · #1 10-09-2007, 06:30 AM

Villain in this hand is 25/23/2.4 (130) and goes by the name Fisher Black - he seems very solid.

I think my preflop, flop and turn lines are fairly standard (I sometime 3-bet pre against a guy with a high steal (i.e. this guy)).

The question is what, if anything, can I do at the river to ensure max value when I'm ahead. Should I bet out here in the region of $20-30 with a 'fold to a raise' mentality?

This is the pearls of being OOP. If I check he checks all weaker kings behind me and value bets all hands that beat me. If anything this might be a good board to value bet out on as the 4 may prevent him from trying anything silly since he'll fear I have it. Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $202.40
CO: $100
BTN: $102.65
SB: $77.05
Hero (BB): $179.70

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, BTN raises to $3.50, SB calls $3, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($10.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $8, SB folds, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($26.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $24, Hero calls $24

River: ($74.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)

djshawk · #2 10-09-2007, 06:44 AM

I think he more likely puts you on a draw, you've shown zero strength all hand and the flush draw missed. If you bet here then he may raise which would mean playing for stacks, so I think whether you bet here depends mostly on how comfortable you are stacking off.

If you check/call then there are still plenty of Kx hands that bet the river here.

Acevader · #3 10-09-2007, 06:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you check/call then there are still plenty of Kx hands that bet the river here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hoping what would call them though? Say villain has K7-K10, what does he expect a river bet to be called by that he beats? K10 may bet and there is a lot more likelihood of KJ betting for value but I'm no so sure about the lower part of that range or the K-rag range.

Stalrock · #4 10-09-2007, 07:00 AM

Hey I dont like a bet on the river. your hand is very underrepped. I feel like he may be on a 2 barrel bluff on the turn. that four doesnt hit any draws so i like a check call on the river.

Acevader · #5 10-09-2007, 07:02 AM

This is interesting! I was expecting a lot of 'bet-fold' river type responses. I'll sit tight for more input before posting result.

Stalrock · #6 10-09-2007, 07:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is interesting! I was expecting a lot of 'bet-fold' river type responses. I'll sit tight for more input before posting result.

[/ QUOTE ]

sounds good; well be waiting patiently.

skibbel · #7 10-09-2007, 07:08 AM

c/c 2 streets, and then b/f in a 75$ pot with eff 100$ stacks.

U're really a retard lol

djshawk · #8 10-09-2007, 07:10 AM

The same question applies to you though, if he's getting frisky with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or whatever then he can't really call your bet on the end. But if he has the higher end of the range, AK, KQ, KJ etc then he will.

You are probably better off betting out as that way you make sure a bet goes in on each street, but only if you think he will call with the hands you dont think he thinks you'll call with (K-rag etc).

If you bet out and get raised though you can't fold, you'll need to bet about $30 I reckon which would mean calling ~$35 more if he raised.

Also, the pot is pretty big now so I think that opens his calling range up more. Maybe a river shove is the best line here? Hmmmm

Acevader · #9 10-09-2007, 07:11 AM

Just ran the hand and checked stacks, yes, it's not a bet-fold, ever.

I didn't calculate what villain had back, I remembered it being more. River pot is $74.5 and villain has $67.15 back which I cover.

djshawk · #10 10-09-2007, 07:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hey I dont like a bet on the river. your hand is very underrepped. I feel like he may be on a 2 barrel bluff on the turn. that four doesnt hit any draws so i like a check call on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my original thinking and I think it's best.

The river shove idea in my last post is pretty dumb unless you think he'll read it as a bluff.