A/4s on the button

[Bluegrassplayer]

This hand gave me a bit of trouble last night at my house game, going to recreate as best as I can. This about 6 hours into the play, and the remaining players are deep stacked because we've already taken most of the dead money at the table. The table is full ring, but I'm just going to mention the 4 of us in the hand:

SB: $700 TAG, claims to be semi pro, but he's not quite that good.

Seat 6: $400 Probably best player here, very TAG, but has a very healthy fear of you as you've taken several hundred off him

Seat 8: $200 donkey, no idea why he's still here donating, just bought in again after

Button: $450

Preflop:

You are dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Seat 6 raises to 12, 8 calls, You call, SB calls.

Flop: ($48)

Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, Seat 6 bets $50, Seat 8 folds

What do I do here? Is this worth reraising?

Ultimately you decide to call.

SB calls as well.

Turn is: (198) A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB checks, Seat 6 bets $100

Once again confused as what to do here, do I push?

[raymond715]

if seat 6 is as good as you say he is he's not paying you off on any spade hits river....a-q sounds about right here...however i think pushing would be bad, i'd maybe call and hope sb calls beind and i hit my hand/ raising would push him out of the pot. As far as a push i guess its pretty player dependant.. what range do you have seat 6 on?

[Bluegrassplayer]

Well I played out the rest of the hand, so I now know whats going on, but I'll try to be as biased as possible:

I think he missed the flop and made a cbet. Unfortunately he is very good with his cbet, and this could easily mean kings or aces as well. If I were most confident in my play I would have certainly raised that flop, but I was too afraid to end up stacking up against him with a draw. The turn made me rethink my position though. A/Q is definitely a possibility now. He's not betting with air anymore with 2 callers behind, so he's either hit his ace, or he did manage to hit 2 pair.

[raymond715]

ok....so now (assuming he's not paying you off) its strictly pot odds i believe as a call by you here telegraphs drawing hand...you are likely behind now, but any spade or 5 will likely give you a win here. 13 outs...i don't feel like doing phil gordon math in my head but i think I might be inclined to fold here, seeing as the betting is still going after you call and its a possibility (albeit small) that seat six could push. The only card (if he correctly assumes you are on a spade draw) i see him paying you off with is a non spade 5.

[Bluegrassplayer]

Really? I'd be getting 3 to 1 odds on my draw. Wouldn't that be good enough for a call? And, like you said, it's possible that the 5 pays more.

[Sounded Simple]

$100~ In the pot, $438~ in your stack, 350~ left in the raisers stack.
12 clean outs, 3 aces may also be good.
Howver only the 3 non-spade 5s have good implied odds (unless your image is ultra agressive and they would pay off on a 3-flush board)

All these things considered who likes a push on the flop?

[iponnet]

minraise flop see free turn/river--fold to shove

as played fold turn, you wont get payed off if a spade hits, plus SB maybe on a flush draw as well

[Sounded Simple]

Why min-raise the flop? He will only fold very weak holdings.
If you did min-raise and folded to a shove that would be burning money since you have at least 12 outs + pot odds.

44% Equity against 22,33,QQ,KQ & AQ.
Thats not allowing for weaker holdings such as air or a FD.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

29,700 games 0.031 secs 958,064 games/sec

Board: Qd 2s 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.621% 44.48% 00.14% 13212 40.50 { As4s }
Hand 1: 55.379% 55.24% 00.14% 16407 40.50 { QQ, 33-22, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo }


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[Bluegrassplayer]

Definitely agree with sounded here. The bet on the turn wasn't nearly large enough to get me out of the pot, Even if I had just the flush draw I think I might have the odds to call that even knowing that he would never pay me on his flush draw. Although he does like to do block bets and would probably pay for a tiny suck bet.

Here is what actually happened: I called the turn, SB folded.

River was: ($398) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Seat 6 checks, Hero does what?

Now I fully believe that if seat 6 had two pair he would have bet here, it's possible that I was calling him with a queen on the flop afterall.

So what is the right bet if I am pretty sure I am good here?

[Sounded Simple]

Its actually tricky now since he probably has you on a busted draw so his check may be designed to induce a bet.

Question is, does he have a better 2-pair/set or does he have AK etc.
If Im betting Im shoving since if your beat he is going to CR all in anyway, and you have to call.

One of the reasons I shove the flop is that when an Ace hits you still dont know where you are at.