NL 25: Nut straight, non paired board, flush possible

WCGRider · #1 10-05-2007, 12:53 AM

Villain is 45/8/1.3 over 400 hands. Plan on River?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($25.70)
UTG ($13.90)
MP ($4)
Hero ($40.55)
SB ($38.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero|Button raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $1, UTG folds.

Flop: ($2.85) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero|Button bets $1.5, BB calls $1.50.

Turn: ($5.85) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero|Button bets $3.25, BB calls $3.25.

River: ($12.35) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $19.7 (All-In), Hero|Button ?

Specialwon · #2 10-05-2007, 02:15 AM

PF, ok I guess. I have taken to limping along quite often with KJ in this situation because so many of these donks love to limp monsters utg and it's really not that great a hand.

Flop, I make a bigger bet here, probably 2-2.50 because the board is so drawy and I would rather just take the pot down here.

Turn: BB appears to be a calling station with those stats. If you had a made hand here, obviously bet away, but you are drawing to probably less than 10 clean outs. Why not take the free card instead of bloating the pot?

River. Well, he says he made the flush. Given his stats, I probably believe him and fold unless you have seen him caught river bluffing before. Maybe you have a stat on his river aggression that might give you a clue there? PAHUD has that number in the drop down box.

WCGRider · #3 10-05-2007, 03:14 AM

yeah i called and he had AKo, and i should have bet more on the flop and checked the turn. But that wouldnt have made my life easy on the river. Is this being a call a serious leak in my game? I think this is a real problem im having.

Specialwon · #4 10-05-2007, 03:33 AM

Checking the turn would have kept it small ball, so if you decide to call (as you did) it's not such a big deal. This is a big consideration where you have dirty outs imo.

As for whether it's a leak, that would depend on how often you get it right. You were getting about 1.6/1 on the call, so you only have to be right about half the time to show a good profit.

The problem here is that he did look like he was on a draw (because he was) and so his bet is pretty plausible particularly when you look at his stats as well. Is that a bluff at least half the time? Personally I don't think so, but what do I know!?

WCGRider · #5 10-05-2007, 04:15 AM

I agree with you 100% in theory, but part of the problem i have had coming up is at like at 2 NL and [censored] people would do this with SO much random crap it was basically an autocall and made huge profit. Now not so much so, its hard to kick the habit.

Bluegrassplayer · #6 10-05-2007, 04:50 AM

from my experience so far in 25 no limit if someone is willing to push all in they usually have what they're representing. Everyone is to tight.

Edit: tight isn't the right word. They're very tight preflop. They will be willing to call with any top pair and any kicker, but they won't push with garbage usually.

WCGRider · #7 10-05-2007, 04:58 AM

I disagree, i see stupid [censored] like this all the time at NL 25, but i do see a trend in it reducing.

doublec · #8 10-05-2007, 08:43 AM

The raise PF is fine to me. I'd bet more on the flop, about $2. Because the turn doesn't hit me I'm checking to keep the pot small. Folding to the river push.

I usually give credit for a push on the river like this as them having what they're representing - especially the first time I see them do it.

I take note and if they do it again I know that a bluff becomes more likely. Then I start considering a call.

Initially at NL25/50 I had big problems calling river bet pushes with 2nd best hands so I'm wary of it.

threads13 · #9 10-05-2007, 09:21 AM

I think I'd bet a little bit more on the flop against this guy. About a 2/3 bet will make it harder for FD's to call and give you a little more fold equity.

Everyone seems to think this players stats indicate that he is passive postflop. I disagree. I think he is probably reasonably aggressive. Therefore, I like a river call.

Whether or not raise preflop depends on this guy's postflop tendencies and how active the blinds are. Does he fold the flop a lot? What sort of hands is he calling with. If he is limp/calling with PP's and SC's then I like the raise. If you have a loose blind then I am not so crazy about the raise.

negtv capability · #10 10-05-2007, 09:24 AM

half ring post in a full ring forum
one up
one up yourself
micro stakes