Can I escape from the trap ?

frenchpignouf · #1 10-04-2007, 06:04 PM

MP is a stupid lag 58.6/20.6/1.6 on 29 hands
Button is a regular tag quite agressive 17.6/14.5/2.6
SB is a fish

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP calls, 1 fold, Button 3-bets, SB calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP caps, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (17 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets, Button raises, SB folds, Hero calls, MP 3-bets, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (13 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Button raises, Hero calls, MP 3-bets, Button calls, Hero calls.

River: (22 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Button calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 24 BB

It looks like I have the odds to peel on the turn, but I'm not sure anymore. I am 99% sure I am behind. It's not clear a K is enough to chop especially the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. T is not an out against QQ and JJ (and TT of course). Against AA , I'm almost dead. Agaisnt AQ or AJ an ace is not an out, and against AK I have only 3 outs (+ 2 kings).

I have often 2 or 3 outs and the kings to chop and I'm not closing the action. Can we find a fold ?

milesdyson · #2 10-04-2007, 06:11 PM

MP owned you Preflop. turn is a super easy fold.

you could have no split outs vs. a flush. button already has one king. if he has the Kh you have no Ah out. either way he already has a k and you're going to be chopping 3way so that's one out to a chop........ Ts could easily be dead too. why did you call? he could even have the royal!!!!!!!

frenchpignouf · #3 10-04-2007, 06:25 PM

In my games (Party), call reraise pf is not AA or KK. MP has very often a garbage. I was tired and I have not counted correctly the outs.

milesdyson · #4 10-04-2007, 06:29 PM

ok but when he bet/3bets the flop and then donks the turn on AQJTheart and the initial preflop 3bettor/flop raiser/tight player raises, dont you think you should stop worrying as much about what happened preflop? there's huge potential for the turn to go 3 or 4 bets

frenchpignouf · #5 10-04-2007, 06:37 PM

I agree.

Button made an interesting overcall with the nut flush on the river.

milesdyson · #6 10-04-2007, 06:42 PM

i find it weird that you comment on his river play when QJT9 hearts on the board and not on the turn when he has customers and has the best hand ~100% of the time.

frenchpignouf · #7 10-04-2007, 06:51 PM

In fact Button has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] k [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], so he's far from the nuts on the turn and MP has an unbelievable k [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Scorcho · #8 10-04-2007, 06:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (13 BB) T (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Button raises, Hero should fold but calls, MP 3-bets, Button calls, Hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, here's your fold. Right after you check, MP bets, and button raises. You're ahead, like, never here. And you're drawing super duper slim and will pay anywhere from 2BB to 4BB to draw to your 1-4 outs, if you have any at all.

BubbleMint · #9 10-04-2007, 07:01 PM

The flop 3 bettor is raised on the turn by button who only call the flop 3 bet. This is telling us he likes the turn card.

The turn completes both possible draws villains could have wanted, if we were ahead on the flop, which I doubt anyway.

2 bets to you on the turn was a super easy fold.

shane88888 · #10 10-04-2007, 07:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
MP is a stupid lag 58.6/20.6/1.6 on 29 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't AA/KK. LAG's like this usually don't play their big hands strong before the flop. Instead, they decide KK is the hand to try and slowplay, and miss tons of value.

I think I'd get away on the turn without putting any bets in. You're drawing to four filthy dirty outs or a chop-chop at best, and the action leading up to this points says that drawing is probably going to be expensive.

You'll find a better spot to punish MP.