KQo no diamond makes straight on turn after 3 diamond flop.......

mackthefork · #1 10-02-2007, 10:02 PM

....with villian aggressively betting.

Villian was 23/15 and postflop aggression of 2.8 over a sample of 100 hands, never got into any big pots other than this one, so no real read.

I was thinking a couple of things;

1) Could be a set. EV on turn 77%
2) Could be a AdX two pair hand. EV on turn 70%
3) Could have KdQx or KxQd and be freerolling me. EV on turn 40%
4) Could have flopped a flush, but this is less likely imo, due to his aggressive line. EV on turn 0%

My feeling was I had to call off the $30 on the end even though I might be drawing dead, because I'm getting around 3-1 and sometimes I'll be a 2-1 favourite or so I reckon.

Anyway not sure on this one, what you think?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button ($49.25)
SB ($62.10)
BB ($64.65)
UTG ($58.15)
Hero ($71.85)
CO ($36.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($4.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $2.5, Hero calls $2.50.

Turn: ($9.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $7.5, Hero raises to $30, SB raises to $57.6, Hero calls $27.60.

River: ($124.70) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $124.70

Regards Mack

Ramana · #2 10-02-2007, 10:05 PM

nh, folding is not an option because his range is too wide

CruS · #3 10-02-2007, 10:06 PM

I don't like the flop call at all, you may be drawing dead and if not probably only 4 outs. If you think he's FOS then raise the flop.

Lego05 · #4 10-02-2007, 10:06 PM

I probably fold the flop.

Turn is a money card though. You're ahead of sets and AdX might really stack off especially AJ,AT. Just hopefully it's not something like 6d5d.

mackthefork · #5 10-02-2007, 10:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the flop call at all, you may be drawing dead and if not probably only 4 outs. If you think he's FOS then raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought he was neither FOS, nor had he flopped a flush, but he wasn't likely to pay much attention to any raise of mine if he had a J with a decent kicker. I thought he probably CRs a flush though.

Mack

kerk · #6 10-02-2007, 10:19 PM

i also fold the flop, you are really drawing to like 2 live 6 live outs. as played, i play the turn the same.

CruS · #7 10-02-2007, 10:20 PM

Then you are calling a PSB to hit a 4 outer on the turn? knowing he will bet strong on the turn again?

mackthefork · #8 10-02-2007, 10:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Then you are calling a PSB to hit a 4 outer on the turn? knowing he will bet strong on the turn again?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why 4? Could be anything from 0-10 the way I count. I'm hoping he won't have it, and will slow down, also the pot was more like 4.20 or something, he bet 2.50 into it. He led into me and something didn't seem right, I guess it was bad as you say.

Mack

kerk · #9 10-02-2007, 10:26 PM

any K, Q, or, 9 of diamonds is almost never an out.

mackthefork · #10 10-02-2007, 10:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
any K, Q, or, 9 of diamonds is almost never an out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not counting any of those. Just possibly 2 Ks 2 Qs 3 As and 3 9s.

Mack