$3 R+A - ITM - What to consider as a Short Stack here?

[Mr. GQ]

This is Full Tilt's $3.30 R+A. There's 60 players remaining and we're in the money. Average stack is 28K.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t800/t1600
(Ante: t200)
8 players
Converter

Seat 1: zhang0605 (112,047)
Seat 2: Kryder2001 (1,870), is sitting out
Seat 3: WIEDMAN (14,088)
Seat 4: lloydtheplayer (9,796)
Seat 5: GQ9999 (16,972)--------- SB
Seat 6: 1Strat1 (73,221)--------- BB
Seat 7: Luigi99 (48,583)--------- UTG
Seat 8: duramax4X4 (55,960)


Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to t4800</font>, 5 folds,

Action is on Hero.

Call: why?

Fold: why?

Raise all in: why?

[Dunkman]

Depends on reads on UTG. 88 could do pretty good against some ranges, not so much against others. I seriously doubt he's folding very much (he's getting over 2:1) although you never really know. Obviously if he's in a later position this becomes a much easier problem...without some read that he's raising more than say AJ+ 77+ I'd be inclined to fold and wait for a spot where I had more FE. For the sake of argument lets say you did decide to play. I would just shove if that's the case. I prefer to SNG with 2 high card hands more than mid pairs. If you SNG and he folds, the only hands you folded out were high cards that bricked, and you would want them in at that point. You'd be offering about 2:1 on a call and a flop push, and 2 bricked high cards are playing correctly by folding.

[Poker Jon]

I fold here. Mid/High Stack is raising a Big Stacks's BB from UTG. This looks like a real hand to me.

[homanga]

This looks like a fold, UTG raise range should be tight enough to where he is never folding to a push. And I think your at best racing here.

[Coz]

I estimated villians range at 77+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo, I added in KQ because the table has 8 as oppoosed to 9 players and one player is sitting out. Against this range you have 43% equity which means because if you shove you will be getting 2-1 on your money and it will be a +Ev play. I shove. Shoving&gt;Folding&gt;calling. The worst thing you could do is call this. Your M is 6, which in my opinion is too low for a Stop and go since if he hits any part of the flop he is probably calling your shove. At least by shoving preflop you have some FE.

Edit: Why are people not looking forward to a race. Our M is 6, we will not get many oppurunities better then this. I would be jumping up and down if I got a race, that would mean I am a favorite to double up and get back in this tourney. No way am I turning this down at this point in the tourney. We don't have any FE against high card hands which is great, because although he will make the proper call we will get all in as a favorite.

[Dunkman]

[ QUOTE ]
I estimated villians range at 77+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo, I added in KQ because the table has 8 as oppoosed to 9 players and one player is sitting out. Against this range you have 43% equity which means because if you shove you will be getting 2-1 on your money and it will be a +Ev play. I shove. Shoving&gt;Folding&gt;calling. The worst thing you could do is call this. Your M is 6, which in my opinion is too low for a Stop and go since if he hits any part of the flop he is probably calling your shove. At least by shoving preflop you have some FE.

Edit: Why are people not looking forward to a race. Our M is 6, we will not get many oppurunities better then this. I would be jumping up and down if I got a race, that would mean I am a favorite to double up and get back in this tourney. No way am I turning this down at this point in the tourney. We don't have any FE against high card hands which is great, because although he will make the proper call we will get all in as a favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand he's getting 2:1 to call your shove, but I don't understand how that means you're getting 2:1 on the shove. There's 3k dead that's not from UTG, and you're shoving 16.2k, so it's like 16.2k to win 20.2, or 1.25 to 1. As 43% to win the hand, you're a 1.33:1 dog. In short, although it's pretty close, it's a -cEV play. Now, you could argue that it's worth it because we're short, but I'd argue in most tournaments it's not optimal.

edit: changed some of the math and the conclusion, late nite&gt;my math

[Coz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I estimated villians range at 77+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo, I added in KQ because the table has 8 as oppoosed to 9 players and one player is sitting out. Against this range you have 43% equity which means because if you shove you will be getting 2-1 on your money and it will be a +Ev play. I shove. Shoving&gt;Folding&gt;calling. The worst thing you could do is call this. Your M is 6, which in my opinion is too low for a Stop and go since if he hits any part of the flop he is probably calling your shove. At least by shoving preflop you have some FE.

Edit: Why are people not looking forward to a race. Our M is 6, we will not get many oppurunities better then this. I would be jumping up and down if I got a race, that would mean I am a favorite to double up and get back in this tourney. No way am I turning this down at this point in the tourney. We don't have any FE against high card hands which is great, because although he will make the proper call we will get all in as a favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand he's getting 2:1 to call your shove, but I don't understand how that means you're getting 2:1 on the shove. There's 3k dead that's not from UTG, and you're shoving 17k, so it's like 17k to win 20, or 1.18 to 1. As 43% to win the hand, you're a 1.33:1 dog. In short, you're not really all that close to the right price, and he's going to have to be folding some stuff to make this push correct...I'm not gonna figure out exactly what he needs to be folding, but I imagine it's quite a few hands, since you're a favorite against the first few in his range that he folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I meant is if he calls, which he probably will you are getting 2-1 because he is going to have to match our 17k.

[Dunkman]

Yeah, my point is just that this is a -cEV push against that range, and I don't think it's best to take those in a $3r even though we're short.