Playing draw OOP against station (NL200)

[Fingerswinger]

against a 36/18/1 calling station, no history.

i have a TAG, solid image. running at ~ 18/16/4
i wasn't c-betting much at all, so when i did i got a lot of respect.

comments on turn and river please - is it dumb to bet into a station with a draw?


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $193
Hero: $553.85
CO: $93.45
Button: $249.70
SB: $389.10
BB: $427.80

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($19, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $15</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($49, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $42</font>, Button calls.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($133, 2 players)
Hero?

[FGators]

I'd check the turn. There's a good chance that he may raise us off the draw and if he doesn't he may bet small enough for us to call and see the river. Also since he sucks he's likely to pay off the flush draw with a single bet and we could likely overbet the straight if it comes in and he'll never fold putting us on whiffed hearts, which would be really deceptive.

Against less stationy players betting the turn is okay but since this guy doesn't seem to fold and the board likely hit him in some way checking the turn, potentially taking a free one or calling something reasonable and making a play at the river is my plan.

Check/fold here...he's looking you up with anything and everything because he's a station after all.

[tannenj]

i play it the same, and now i cf.

[Symbolic]

[ QUOTE ]
i play it the same, and now i cf.

[/ QUOTE ]
Turn bet is definately good with 15 outs. He'll fold some of his flop calling range (eg. 5x, 4x, 33, 22, possibly 66, 77, overcards). If we're called we have a good chance of getting paid off on river, which we'll hit &gt;30% of the time. Sure it's there's a chance we could get raised, but our draw is so strong and we have decent FE that I'm gonna be playing it aggressively. If I check, it's to crai. Anyway, as it turned out, c/f. River isn't gonna really scare him off much of his turn calling range. He'l fold sometimes, but not enough to make a bluff profitable IMO. If it was a K or something then there's a case for bluffing but not on this card against this oppponent.

[Fingerswinger]

ok, thanks for the comments!

i check/folded to his $66 bet and was pretty frustrated because other people seem to hit every two-outer and i can't hit with a ton of outs... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]