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#1
09-29-2007, 10:02 PM
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50nl: AQ river decision
Villain is 31/10 over 80 hands, no other reads.
Pre-flop was an accident. I think flop and turn play was standard value bets. On the river I put villain on Ax, Tx or busted draw so i decided to check rather than bet and planned to call a small-mid sized bet. Once he bets big i think we can narrow his range down to Tx or busted draws, however i'm not sure how often he has the draw here, so i fold. Thoughts? Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) Hero (SB): $55.40 BB: $50.70 UTG: $37.50 BTN: $175.80 Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players) UTG calls $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks Flop: ($2) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50 Turn: ($6.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $4.50</font>, UTG folds, BTN calls $4.50 River: ($15.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $13.50</font>, Hero folds Pot Size: $29.00 ($0.75 Rake) 
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#2
09-29-2007, 10:03 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ river decision
his number of busted draws outnumber his number of Tx hands...
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#3
09-29-2007, 10:06 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ river decision
I usually bet/fold, getting paid off by Qx (why didn't you include Qx in his range?). If you think he's bluffy you should c/c. Never c/f.
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#4
09-29-2007, 10:16 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ river decision
All his draws missed, the only hands that make sense are 10J,109,108cc . I really dont think someone is staying in here with a naked 10.
I actually like the way you played it - the fold. Checking here to induce from busted draws is the only way you might get any more value out of them. Never fold here tho, if he has a 10 pay him off and move on
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#5
09-29-2007, 10:18 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ river decision
[ QUOTE ]
I usually bet/fold, getting paid off by Qx (why didn't you include Qx in his range?). If you think he's bluffy you should c/c. Never c/f. [/ QUOTE ] yeah i typo'd, Ax is supposed to be Qx. But i don't think he will bet a Q on the river very often. Its just a gut feeling i guess.
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#7
09-29-2007, 10:23 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ river decision
[ QUOTE ]
All his draws missed, the only hands that make sense are 10J,109,108cc . I really dont think someone is staying in here with a naked 10. [/ QUOTE ] I figured he could get to the river with almost any T really.
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#8
09-29-2007, 10:24 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ river decision
[ QUOTE ]
his number of busted draws outnumber his number of Tx hands... [/ QUOTE ] This is probably true, there's tons of xxcc and KJ/J9 combos. But while he'll bet the river 100% with Tx he won't always bluff with a draw.
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#9
09-29-2007, 10:26 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ river decision
Its really unlikely you betting strong into 2 players on the turn without having a naked ten beat
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#10
09-29-2007, 10:26 PM
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Re: 50nl: AQ river decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I usually bet/fold, getting paid off by Qx (why didn't you include Qx in his range?). If you think he's bluffy you should c/c. Never c/f. [/ QUOTE ] yeah i typo'd, Ax is supposed to be Qx. But i don't think he will bet a Q on the river very often. Its just a gut feeling i guess. [/ QUOTE ] He'll probably often check Qx, that's why I'm betting the river so he'll pay me off. If you check it's to induce a bluff from his busted draws and sometimes a bet from Qx. If you think he'll fold Qx if you bet then c/f becomes an option but I don't think this guy will.
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