Question

[ThomasDayton]

I hope this is correct for this forum:

"The board has 5 of hearts, J of hearts, 8 of hearts, 4 of clubs.
You hold AQ off and the A is hearts
You put your opponent on having pocket J's
The pot has 500 chips and your opponent bets 350

In the long run would you make money or lose money if you make this call? and why?"

I first posted this on Beginners because there had been talk about Pot odds and BEP's. My whole point was that Pot odds and BEP are not equal and one and the same as people had been insisting.

This was the answer I had

"On the river you have a 18.2% chance of winning.
Pot odds are 850/350 or 2.4 to 1
Break even % is 1/2.4+1 or 1/3.4 or 29%
You need a 29% chance or better to win for it to be profitable in the long run if you call.

So you would lose more money then make money in the long run."

Then I had a extra thought as I post this and asked about raise.

"However if you raise and represent a made flush, I wonder how much the raise would have to be to force him to fold, thinking he does not have a better % of making a fullhouse then the break even percentage.

Now it is starting to sound like there is a reason for understanding how to figure pot odds and break even persentages."

At first I had a hard time figuring the answer because I am new to poker and just learning Pot odds and BEP's
But I think a raise of 450 to 800 total would give the J's a poor BEP.

One person said that there where other things to consider then BEP's like FE (not sure what that is) and that if we are talking about a raise maybe this should be posted in theory, and also one person talked about how there was no senerio of what happened up to this point.

First off I guess my question is Have I figured the BEP's right, and is that the right amount of a raise to make the J's consider a fold, and then I guess what are some of the other considerations Like the (FE) one person mentioned

[Mike Kelley]

you have 8 outs (4h Pairs the board) and he has 10

You basically would have to bet enough so that the pot is not offering him enough to fill up on the end. Also, figure that opponent is going to figure a 10-20% chance that you are bluffing in his range when he analyzes your possible hands.

500 pot + 350 opponent bet + 350 your call = 1200

How deep are the stacks?

You have very little fold equity against a set.

[ThomasDayton]

[ QUOTE ]
You have very little fold equity against a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, did not give much thought to this other then figuring Pot Odds and BEP's

Realitively new to the game not sure what you mean "fold equity". Would he not be thinking made flush? or concider it?
I suppose if he reads me on a draw I'm sunk. Does this have to do with fold equity?
The chips stacks would make a difference in him folding or not. Would he be more willing to fold with a larger or smaller stack say in the middle of a small tourney? (40 players or so)

[PantsOnFire]

You have 8 outs or odds of (46-8):8 = 4.75:1. To call a 350 bet, you need to win a pot of 4.75*350 = 1662. There is currently 850 in the pot so if you hit one of your 8 outs, you need to win a river bet of at least 1662-850 = 812. So you will need to bet 812 into a 1200 pot with 4 flush cards on board and villain holding a set of jacks. You have to decide if villain will pay this off based on what you know about him.

The other play is to raise villain on the turn. He has 10 outs to hit a full house. So his pot odds are (46-10):10 = 3.6:1. If you offer him better odds than this, he will certainly call. If you offer him much worse odds, he might decide that he is ahead and call anyways. If he does decide he is ahead, then there is no amount you can bet to make him fold.

This is where fold equity comes into play. FE is basically the percentage of the time that villain will fold. Some villains will never fold a set in this situation. Actually I think most would never fold with at least 10 outs to the absolute nuts and possibly being ahead to boot. Your fold equity also depends a lot on how villain sees you as a player. If you only go all-in with the nuts (and that's how he sees you), then an all-in here will have very good fold equity. If you add up your FE and your hand equity and it comes out to better than what it would cost you to go all-in, then that's the move.

Overall, in this situation I would figure my fold equity is fairly low, so I wouldn't raise. I would also figure that it might be difficult to get 812 chips out of a player with a 4 flush board.

I would fold here unless I had a very good read on this situation. And this read would have to be rock solid.

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have very little fold equity against a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, did not give much thought to this other then figuring Pot Odds and BEP's

Realitively new to the game not sure what you mean "fold equity". Would he not be thinking made flush? or concider it?

[/ QUOTE ]

He might consider it but he still won't fold.


[ QUOTE ]
I suppose if he reads me on a draw I'm sunk. Does this have to do with fold equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and no. Fold equity = chance of opponent folding if you bet x pot.

Say the pot's 300, and you bet 100. You figure this will make him fold his set 20% of the time. So your fold equity is 60. You can figure out for yourself whether it would be worth betting in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]
The chips stacks would make a difference in him folding or not. Would he be more willing to fold with a larger or smaller stack say in the middle of a small tourney? (40 players or so)

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's short enough in comparison with the pot, he'll feel pot committed and get it all in rather than fold.

[ThomasDayton]

Thank you for this info. I will digest it as a new player to poker. I think maybe given the pot odds with his original bet i would have folded. Just wondered some thoughts on if i raised what would i be up against. once again thanks

[ThomasDayton]

[ QUOTE ]
[Say the pot's 300, and you bet 100. You figure this will make him fold his set 20% of the time. So your fold equity is 60. You can figure out for yourself whether it would be worth betting in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not sure i'm understanding how you arrive at the thought he would fold 20% of the time. Fold equity of 60. In this instance however you arrive at it does that mean his fold equity is 20% or 60. Is that good or bad or I mean what is a good fold equity %

[mr_hanky]

Fold equity*pot size = expected value of a fold
0.2*300=60

The guess of 20% is just an example, it would actually be much lower than this in the actual example you posted.

It is best to think about fold equity as a percentage of the pot after you have made your bet, convert it to $$, and then compare that to the amount you are betting. If you are betting less than that amount it is a good fold equity and it has positive expected value.
For example, on a different hand to the one discussed above, you may have 80% fold equity because the river just paired the board and opponent has K-high
If you bet half the pot into a $200 pot, and you never win when called.

0.8*300=240 our fold equity of the pot after our bet.
then subtract the cost

240-100=140

This has +EV of $140.


Another way to do the same math

0.8*200=160 won when he folds 80% of time.
0.2*100=20 lost when he calls 20% of time

EV=160-20= +140

[ThomasDayton]

Thank you for this insight will look at it and glean what I can. Apprciate you taking time to enlighten, did not know anything about fold equity. Are there books that go into the subject? I am reading Harrington on hold'em now, vol. I. Might you suggest other reading?

[Gonso]

Thomas,

Get Harringon's 2nd book, then Professional No Limit Hold'em, then Theory of Poker. That will give you a pretty solid foundation (and there are other good resources from there to move on to).

Theory of Poker will be the most important book overall, but since you're just getting into it I'd warm up with the Harrington books... they're a good read.

Also, for your question above, there are a lot of differences between tournaments and cash games, especailly when you're having to decide if you can make a call for a lot of chips. Just something to keep in mind.