$5 PS, AQo 3 handed BB

[pa3lsvt]

On the bubble, I abused the heck out of it and SB was the only other abuser (once he saw it was working for me). SB has been equally active PF 3 handed, especially on my BB. I've slowed him down some by defending occasionally on the bubble and 3 handed and attacking every time SB open completed in front of me, which wasn't uncommon as well. That would slow him down for a few orbits but he'd go right back to it eventually. It's been long enough that his activity level was increasing again (open raised 3 BB on our last BvB battle and I folded). Most raises from SB have been 2.5 or 3 BB; this is the first 4 BB raise I've seen out of him. Given that info, I felt SB had a hand that he didn't want to see a flop with.

This is a spot I struggle with as I know I'm supposed to be more willing to take risks 3 handed (1st > avg(2nd + 3rd) and all) but these type of hands vex me. I'd be happy to get it all in on a coinflip for sure. I can't possibly fold this, but calling for 20% of my stack can't be so great either. There are some worse hands that call a shove here as it's only a $5 but not many (maybe Aces as small as AT or A9, plus KQ). I'd expect all PPs and AK to call a shove. I'm virtually a coinflip against that calling range - that said, I'm not deep enough to raise anything that isn't a shove.

ICM calcs:
Shove, get called, and lose: -$4.77
Shove, get called, and win: +$3.81
Overall shove & get called (assume 50/50 vs. calling range): -$0.48
Shove, no call: +$0.95
Fold: -$0.24

So, SB has to fold 17% or more of his raising range or more when I shove for this to be profitable. Given that he wasn't averse to open completing (with likely sucky hands) AND the 4 BB raise, I suddenly don't like shoving at all.

Now that I've typed this out, I'm thinking that this is a textbook spot for a stop-and-go but I still can't make myself fold.

Anyone want to check my math, assumptions, or give other insight?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 No Ante (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t3410)
Button (t5420)
SB (t4670)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ...</font>

[Scotty_12]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking that this is a textbook spot for a push preflop with a violent fistpump

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

You are shorty ITM, with a big hand and 1K dead money in front of you (close to 1/3 of your stack)

[joshrocker]

push all in here every time given the setup you gave us.