6.50$ on PS: AQ on the bubble behind an all in.

[binarysmil]

Hi,
No reads, really.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) by Hand Converter CG

SB (t8295)
BB (t1450)
UTG (t1795)
Hero (t1960)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1795</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1960</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t4055) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t4055) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t4055) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t4055

Your opinion ?

Thank you.

[tercet]

Eh, its real close, read dependant. If the big stack was half decent here he would call any 2 and take a shot at busting the pusher.

[Scotty_12]

This is breakeven with UTG shoving 26% (any pair, ace, K9o+,K7s+, QTs+, JTs+ .... if you had AK, it would be breakeven if he was shoving 16%

If you dont have the read the he has been argessive on the bubble, I cant see him shoving wide enough for this to be a +EV call, as I would estimate his range being closer to 10-15%

[HajiShirazu]

[ QUOTE ]
If the big stack was half decent here he would call any 2 and take a shot at busting the pusher.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why does big stack care about busting the pusher?
Anyway this is a classic "I have the best hand, I fold" scenario. Without even doing an ICM calc, assuming the big stack makes the money with these stacks you should make it 70 of the time if you fold. If you call you will lose close to half the time putting you out of the money. And if you call and win, you'll get 2nd far more often, but you won't win that many more firsts.

[binarysmil]

Then would you have made the call without any reads ?

[CheeseMoney]

No.

[sean457j]

[ QUOTE ]
This is breakeven with UTG shoving 26% (any pair, ace, K9o+,K7s+, QTs+, JTs+ .... if you had AK, it would be breakeven if he was shoving 16%

If you dont have the read the he has been argessive on the bubble, I cant see him shoving wide enough for this to be a +EV call, as I would estimate his range being closer to 10-15%

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone know how Scotty_12 worked this out? I am not disputing the facts, I was just wondering how you would work this out.

[Pocketbear]

[ QUOTE ]
I was just wondering how you would work this out.

[/ QUOTE ]
ICM? SNGPT or SNGWiz?

[CrownShark]

OK say the big stack reaches the money, then there's $5205 left.
you have 37% of that. so you're a 3-1 favourite to reach the money.
If you call you are almost never a 3-1 favourite.
Even the extra money for finishing 2nd or even 1st doesn't make up for the times you're down to 200 = busted

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was just wondering how you would work this out.

[/ QUOTE ]
ICM? SNGPT or SNGWiz?

[/ QUOTE ]Are these free?