$109 15k - A few decisions with 77 on the bubble

[benneh]

3 decisions in this hand, what do you pick?

(If one of your decisions doesn't fit with the other deciisons since you would have folded/called/raised in another spot and not have to face this decision, just assume you played it as Hero)

We are at 53 left with 45 getting paid. Villain is 28/12/4 over 32 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero (t16212)</font>
BB (t19655)
UTG (t23698)
UTG+1 (t8200)
MP1 (t21149)
MP2 (t40177)
<font color="#C00000">MP3 (t26214)</font>
CO (t7340)
Button (t34491)


#1) Shove, Call or Fold?

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t3150</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ???

#2) Shove or check?

Flop: (t6500) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ???

#3) Call or fold?

<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets t22989 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

[BarryLyndon]

I really hate that pokerstars is so successful whereas converters aren't compatible with its antes structure and it's graphics look like something out of a Commodore64.

The good news is that with 4000 in the pot, I think you have a good amount of FE against MP3's raise here plus you are getting 44% pot odds, not bad with 77 against an MP3 raise. He calls with AK, AQ here; he probably folds AJ/88, may call with 99+. So - you are 35% against his range. His range, given his stack, is probably pretty big, so AI may be slightly +EV. HOWEVER, his raise size compared to CO's stack and, to some extent, yours, is a negative. I dunno - marginal decision, and I probably fold.

Flop: I think against his range given the size of the pot and the board texture that you have to call.

Barry

[cheburashka]

I hate to disagree with Barry, since that means I'm almost certainly wrong, but I like a pe-flop shove here.

If villain is PFR 12%, then he's open-raising wider than that from MP3. If it's 17%, then his range might be something like 66+, A9+, A5-8s, SCs 65s-JTs, KJ-Q, QJ, KTs, QTs. If he keeps AJ+, 88+ when you shove, that means he folds 60% of his hands, and you have 37% equity against what he keeps.

That means: You win 60% * 4800 = 2880 if he folds; you win 40% * 37% * 17800 = 2640 if he calls and you win; and you lose 40% * 63% * 16000 = -4030 if he calls and you lose. Net EV = +1440. Barry suggest he would fold AJ here, which makes this even more +EV.

Edit: I just realized you're in the small blind and I'm too lazy to do this over, especially since it changes the answer by only 100 or so.

[Sherman]

#1) Shove.
#2) Check w/the intention of shoving or just shove is he is not likely to c-bet (check PA-hud stats)
#3) Call.

[donquay]

#1)I shove because we've got some FE...calling just might invite BB to shove behind us...if our stack is a little shorter I might risk a stop and go even though we're not completing the action preflop...in this case I think shove &gt; folding &gt; call

#2)with that flop I'm looking to get my chips in...I'd be inclined to shove and let villain decide if he calls off his chips

#3) call...smells like a couple of overcards and if he c-bets he could easily get crai

[BarryLyndon]

From my response, I think we can agree that I was arguing that while shove is the mainstay (it is), I am very tempted to fold here. The size of MP3's raise appears to be inviting a shove. You have to narrow his range a little, Chebs, because would he really commit himself with 65s against CO? Raising this much actually puts AJo in a tough decision where you can probably get away with just raising to 2200 and be fine. All this leads me to believe he has a strong hand.

Shoving is fine, and if I were playing 8 tables I would shove. But, I only play 2-3 tables, because I'm bad, and with that, I am really on the fence here, leaning toward a fold.

[Mr.WeakTight]

1- shove. small M (assuming antes). you have pair. you have worst position rest of streets. re-steals on bubble are +EV.

2 - only 1 semi-big card and two small ones. two tone board. the connectedness is not going to be an issue. you have a pair. he likely has Ax or a pair or it's a buble steal. push. you're ahead of his range, and although the flop didn't help you, it didn't hurt you very much.

3- so you checked? and he pushed. that tells me he missed. if he had something he'd make more of a value bet or pot sized bet and hope that you pushed. call.

(BTW- this is w/o reading other replies).

[levAA]

1.) Fold, I would shove with 88+ here - but it's borderline

2.) As we beat now the high unpaired cards from his range and the pot is big - shove

3.) call - this doesn't look like a bet from an overpair

[black666]

PF a call is bad as the raise is to big / your stack is to shallow to go for a set (I'm usually looking for 10x the PFR in both villain's and hero's stack).

That leaves only shove or fold. You can argue for both. I don't think that villain's range is that wide as he would be committed against a CO shove but we certainly have FE and villain is folding a huge part of his range being on the bubble and having a nice stack.

Once you are on the flop, I would shove and make him hate AJ+

As played I would call the flop shove but hate myself.

[Sherman]

Those who are saying shove to #2...you realize we never get called by a worse hand right?

That means you are shoving because you are afraid villain will check behind and take a free card which is disastrous for us. If you "know" he will bet, you should never open shove in this spot.