flop 2pr gets ugly on turn NL200 CASH

[jakeduke]

Villain is loose, aggressive, and not very good. The only significant pot we've shown down is where he min c/r a 7d4s6s flop with Ks8s and called a shove for about 45bb where my 97 held. He berated me for it in chat fwiw.

Flop play seems pretty standard here. I have a big hand and don't mind getting it in on the flop, since I know he's capable of calling big here with just clubs. The turn brings a pretty bad card, but is it really that bad? I can see villain having 2 pair a lot now, but unless he had the straight already of has QJ I don't see how this card really puts him ahead. That's basically due to the flop action - I don't see him min c/r and then calling a big raise with just a gutshot - I can much more easily see him doing this with a hand that has a 9. I also likely have 4-10 outs to at least a chop even if I'm behind. So do you check and try to see a showdown, or do you just shove right here? Villain has about 95 behind I think.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

BB: $163.30
Hero (SB): $237.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $6.00</font>, BB calls $4.00

Flop: ($12) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $9.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $18.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $66.00</font>, BB calls $48.00

Turn: ($144) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, hero shoves? checks?

[People_Mover]

at first i thought this was against me as i played a hand exactly like this last night, but I don't minraise.

I get it in here and feel good about it. who is the villian?

[jay_shark]

I think it's still likely you're ahead , so the question becomes " how can I get villain to spew the most money ?"

I don't mind checking here because if he's on a draw that failed to materialize (or maybe a worse 2-pair), then he may bet out on the river . At this point , you should be willing to call his river bet .

[abcjnich]

I don't mind making a huge flop raise here. I think you should either raise bigger on the flop (he will stack off with worse) or raise less (it doesn't matter if you raise to 66 or 42, his calling range is exactly the same and the same number of turn cards are bad).

As played check behind.

[jakeduke]

abc,

Why would I raise small here? If he's calling with the same range at 42 and 66 I want to make it 66 every time as I'll be getting more money in with the best of it. I guess I can see raising to 85 or something, but it's not something I normally do.


abc and jay - do you think villain is gonna turn a ten or a 9 into a bluff on the river after I check behind? Is he going to value bet a weaker two pair? will he call a river shove with one pair? my main concern with checking is that if he has a hand like 89/T9/K9, he might call the turn if i shove, but he won't call on a brick river. what if a queen comes on the river and he shoves?

[xSCWx]

I swear, every time I get in this god damn situation they have JT.

I check the turn. If the villain calls a bet here it is pretty clear he is all in by the river. I can't imagine him calling then showing up with worse.

[jakeduke]

[ QUOTE ]
I swear, every time I get in this god damn situation they have JT.

I check the turn. If the villain calls a bet here it is pretty clear he is all in by the river. I can't imagine him calling then showing up with worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

you mean he's gonna shove the river if I don't put him in on the turn? I don't really agree with that unless he has a straight or complete air.

[xSCWx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I swear, every time I get in this god damn situation they have JT.

I check the turn. If the villain calls a bet here it is pretty clear he is all in by the river. I can't imagine him calling then showing up with worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

you mean he's gonna shove the river if I don't put him in on the turn? I don't really agree with that unless he has a straight or complete air.

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean that if he calls a bet from you on the turn it is under an assumption that you will put him all in on the river. He has like 1/2 PSB left at the turn.

Edit: If you shove here I don't think you ever get called by worse. The only ways I see value coming out of this are:

a) You check turn, he bluffs river and you call.
b) You check turn, he checks river with worse.
c) Your hand improves on the river.

[jakeduke]

[ QUOTE ]


I mean that if he calls a bet from you on the turn it is under an assumption that you will put him all in on the river. He has like 1/2 PSB left at the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not making two bets here - there's no point really. If I bet once I'm shoving.


[ QUOTE ]
Edit: If you shove here I don't think you ever get called by worse. The only ways I see value coming out of this are:

a) You check turn, he bluffs river and you call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's gonna be pretty tough for me to call a river bet, isn't it? I just don't see myself calling that often if he does bluff. I also really don't think he's gonna bluff very often at all.

[ QUOTE ]

b) You check turn, he checks river with worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather bet the turn than the river if I had to pick one since he can still call me with pair + draw hands now (or weaker two pair) that have a chance to improve, while he can't do that on the river.

[ QUOTE ]

c) Your hand improves on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I'd be fine with this.



Maybe I'm still missing something re: checking the turn, but I'm still not sure I understand why it would be best. I ended up shoving the turn, and he snapcalled with T9o (and called me terrible for it in chat again lol).

[xSCWx]

I guess I just haven't really shoved in this situation enough to know what people will call with.