600nl, QTs oop vs tag, call river?

[DanJ.]

This a busted draw enough times? i feel like the only made hand he can have is ATs, he could have possibly peeled KJs/JTs on the flop though, but im not sure if he does it with the SB to act.
Fwiw the SB was decent tag.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $615.00
BB: $600.00
UTG: $168.96
MP: $667.15
Hero (CO): $627.00
BTN: $579.00

Reads: <font color="blue">20/17/3.5 over 400, seems pretty std, doesn't 3b me as much as the other regs do.

views me as 22/20/5 or around there. I have only been at this table for 3 orbits, havnt done anything so far.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $21.00</font>, BTN calls $21.00, SB calls $18.00, BB folds

Flop: ($69) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $54.00</font>, BTN calls $54.00, SB folds

Turn: ($177) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($177) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $130.00</font>, Hero

[DeucesNeverLoses]

I think he could be super strong, like KTdd, or super weak like 9Tdd trying to bluff you off an ace. I still fold though, since he could be trying to value town an A.

[DanJ.]

why would he check turn with KTdd?

[AAismyfriend]

Fold the river, are you putting him exactly on like 76d or something?

[mattaasen]

insta muck


u bet into 2 other people on flop he has got to give u credit for something this board is pretty coordinated i doubt he is bluffing busted diamond near enough to make calling plus ev.

this is j-10 or ace-9 s or something ............

[dtan05]

raise &gt; call imo?m a bit tpisy

[23act]

No legit jacks he can have - he'd raise AJ or QJ on flop prob, or at least bet them on turn and i don't see a good reg. peeling with bottom pair + gutshot.

By c/r river you only really rep TJ, KJ, 8J because of your turn check. Also, villian might think u're trying to c/r him off a split.

Also, AT is like the only A thats in his preflop range given his stats.

If you consider his range as AT and 45s,56s,67s,78s,89s,9Ts(*4),57s,68s,79s,8Ts then its close but prob a call. I don't think he calls AT preflop all the the time tho, and once u start discounting that a bit, its leaning more to a call. really close.

[Praetor]

fold

[DanJ.]

ur all saying fold, but the only post with some reasoning says close call...???

[ChrisV]

The only reasonable hands that beat you are AT, KJ and JT. If you assume that villain's range is ATo, ATs, KJs, JTs and 98dd through 54dd, this is a call because you have like 36% equity in the pot and only need 30%. If u throw in KJo as well though it turns into a fold, but then if you throw in the diamond one gappers, etc etc... it depends how you construct villain's range, but it's definitely close.