ftp $8.80 180 mtt push vs top pair + flush draw

[Cjmunky2]

Just moved to the table, so no idea of how of how villian plays.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3668998070: $8 + $0.80 Sit & Go (27930510), Table 4 - 200/400 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:41:31 ET - 2007/09/25
Seat 1: hero(21,145)
Seat 2: SARRON (14,230)
Seat 3: The Gatherer (5,902)
Seat 4: roy00 (12,105)
Seat 6: PeRniLle_DK (9,800)
Seat 7: WhiteKnucklez (4,399)
Seat 9: villian(12,965)
hero antes 50
SARRON antes 50
The Gatherer antes 50
roy00 antes 50
PeRniLle_DK antes 50
WhiteKnucklez antes 50
villian antes 50
villianSposts the small blind of 200
hero posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero[As 8c]
SARRON folds
The Gatherer folds
roy00 folds
PeRniLle_DK calls 400
WhiteKnucklez folds
villian calls 200
hero checks
*** FLOP *** [8s 3s 5s]
villian has 15 seconds left to act
villian checks
hero has 15 seconds left to act
hero bets 1,200
PeRniLle_DK folds
villian calls 1,200
*** TURN *** [8s 3s 5s] [3c]
villian bets 11,315, and is all in
hero has 15 seconds left to act
hero has requested TIME
hero ???

[tomek322]

I call, you really think he is doing this with a boat?

[BarryLyndon]

You could try to abuse them preflop given your stack and a weak CO-1 limp + SB complete, but since you don't know how they play, meh. I think you have a lot of FE here pushing and 1500 sitting out there. I prob. check against unknowns in the BB. Though, more and more these days, in spots like this, I try to accumulate chips.

You could already be crushed by an FH, but let's assume that those hands either lead or check raise. So, really the question is does he have a three or not. Going on that, if he does, you're about 23% to win. You're putting in 11K to win about 16K, so you need to win about 40% to make it profitable. Could he be FOS more than X% of the time (how do you caluclate that number) to make the call profitable? I don't know, it's ballsy, I lean toward folding here.

Barry

[BarryLyndon]

Bump, because I like this question for some reason, I don't think it's gotten enough love, and I have a question about doing a math problem that Sherman will laugh at.

Barry

[Cjmunky2]

Im kinda leaning towards a call now that i think of it more.Why would he push with a full house?? Wouldn't he want to extract maximum value by either slowplaying it, or something like a min reraise?? Also I dont mean to sound like a newb, but what does FOS mean? Barry thanks for the responses, I really appreciate it.=0 )

[tomek322]

FOS=full of [censored], this just reminds me that c/c flop, turn shove is like never a monster.

[SuperUberBob]

I call. You have TPTK + FD. He probably doesn't have a boat (he'd have to have 83 or 53 for that since he'd raise any other pair). If you didn't have the FD, it'd be a tougher decision.

[BarryLyndon]

fwiw, not every call / push line is full of it. Last night Q6 in the BB took this line on a Q 3 5 board. A J hit on the turn, BB pushed, and the unlucky caller ran into Q6. nh.

And you aren't only worried about a boat, are you? You're worried about 43s / 43o / K3s / K3o as well. Those lines are ABSOLUTELY consistent with this flop, his timing tell, and the size of the pot on the turn. Oh, and the three spades on the board.

With your FD, you're still only 23% against that range. What I'm trying to say is that before you call 11K into 16K, you need to find a couple of other hands that he takes this line with. I suppose if you factor in that he could be bluffing with Ks or Qs, then that makes it a call. However, if he does have Ks or Qs and he thinks you have a 3, is he really taking this line? C/R on the flop, yes? Why can't you have a 3 and why is he pushing now?

Spite calling based on stereotyped Donkish tendencies is one thing, but this board is pretty scary. There is nothing wrong with calling, but it's a harder decision (for me at least). Situations like this truly suck.

Barry