NL200, valuebet this river (note stacks)

ManChild · #1 09-25-2007, 04:11 AM

CO is a bad regular, probably would lose a big pot with TPTK here or an over pair, i have him as 18/8 over a few thousand hands or so.

BB is 48/24, 33% wtsd and will call 3 bets cold way too wide

Aggression by street .8, 1.8, 1.7

I'm sure he doesn't fold any aces here, but i think he may play AQ,AJ,AT this way (he may likely play AK more aggressively) and most small aces are now beating me, but he is really bad.... so is there value in betting this river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($555.35)
MP ($386.20)
CO ($337.30)
Button ($197.05)
SB ($230.40)
BB ($649.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, CO raises to $24, 2 folds, BB calls $22, Hero calls $17.

Flop: ($73) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: ($73) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $44, CO folds, BB calls $44.

River: ($161) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero

tubasteve · #2 09-25-2007, 04:13 AM

i think checking is fine.

SirFelixCat · #3 09-25-2007, 04:15 AM

I don't see how he plays Ax here this way. He checks flop AND turn?

I'm not sure if he's gonna call the river vbet with JJ-KK, but I think there is value to be had here, yes.

Then again, he COULD have a set here. I don't see any other hands...this is JJ+ up to, and including AA, albeit thin, since you have one of the A's.

When a 48/24 STOPS with the aggression, I might worry, but I bet here.

eta: I don't think checking is bad, just that you asked if there is value in betting here. I think so, but it's thin, no?

wdead · #4 09-25-2007, 04:15 AM

Either BB has missed diamonds, and folds, better ace, and calls, or 99-jjish, and folds. check

ManChild · #5 09-25-2007, 05:09 AM

in spots like this when he was calling 3 bets cold, he wasn't playing very aggressively post flop w/o hands

AMT · #6 09-25-2007, 05:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Either BB has missed diamonds, and folds, better ace, and calls, worse ace, and calls or 99-jjish,calls a small bet bc hes a loose calling station donkey. bet 65.

[/ QUOTE ]