NL200 Missed c/r on the river.

[jetsetboy]

Okay I'm losing a ton of value with missed c/r on the river. After about 150k hands at NL200 on PS a friend of mine came to my home and looked at my c/r on the river. There was only 5 c/r on the rivers. So I decided to work on it but it seems that I'm really unable to pick the best spots to do it.

I include one example of hand where I tried and missed. When looking at it I think it was really an horrible post because K is a really scary cards for vilain (even if I would have fold AK on previous street if I hold this). Vilain is 14/7/1.25 and have a river AF of 4.5 over 540 hands. That was the main reason why I tryed it.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $245.40
UTG+1: $235.10
MP1: $190.65
hero: $332.25
Button: $392.75
SB: $64.70
BB: $59.65

Pre-flop: (7 players) hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $8</font>, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($19, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $14</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $32</font>, hero calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($83, 2 players)
hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $50</font>, hero calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($183, 2 players)
hero checks, Button checks.

Results:
Final pot: $183

If I check most of the pp will fold to a c/rai and then I would won only a bet that might beless than what he would call if I had bet.
If I lead the hands that would call a c/rai mostly FH and 22 would raise AI.
C/R &gt;&gt; lead only if he can decide to bluff catch on the river or if he is on a pure bluff with no SD value and is willing to fire a third barrel.

Most of the problem is that this kind of nit usually don't try a thin value bet on the river with QQ-TT after having raise the flop and bet the turn. Chances are too high that I have AA/KK and look them up.

I'm still not sure on what to think about this hand. Stack size and river AF would lead me to try it again while board texture would lead me to bet something like $120.

Any comment on this hand or any comment on how to chose spots for a c/rai?

[SammyG-SD]

I don't think this is the place to c/r, as the King probably was a scare card for the villian (he probably had JJ-TT.). Plus you c/c the Turn, so his warning lights should be going on. If you bet the turn, then c/r the river, that could be a good line-as villian could believe you were afraid of the king and make a move at the pot. I think value bet on the river is the play here.

-of course I just check my stats, I only c/r 0.31% of the time.................

[Albert Moulton]

Value bet the river. 8x, 99-QQ probably call a small bet despite the K on the river, but would check behind otherwise. Remember that to those hands the K is a scare card. Big hands, like trip 2s (i.e. A2s) or lower full houses will raise your river bet anyway, so there is no need to go for a c/r. Just value bet a small amount on the end and hope that he calls with 8x+99-QQ, but raises with bigger hands.

[Proofrock]

I like c/r-ing the river when I think Villain will value bet any hand he'll call a bet with.

Villain's hand is pretty well-defined as 88-QQ in this hand, so the K is a big scare card for everything but 88. 88 is going to shove over a raise anyway because AK just got there. 99-QQ will probably pay off a moderate value bet, but will often check behind, so this is a bad spot for a river c/r.

[CalledDownLight]

man, I really don't see mid pairs calling too often at all. Your line would look like JJ at worst imo with it being heavily weighted to KK-AA and very occasionally some random bluff thrown in (99 and 1010 seem a little thin for value by you oop). CRAI is decent here most of the time imo, but since you don't think he bets pocket pairs then I don't really like it. His range is pretty narrow and he's either going to put you on a bluff/monster if you bet in which case he'll just call down or fold depending on his view.

All that said, I think I might just overbet shove and hope to get looked up on occasion by pocket pairs and basically always by a 2 or another FH.

[jetsetboy]

I agree that the best solution was to overpush the river. He might have called as he had AA. I dunno.

Sadely I have only read your post today CalledDownLight. I played this hand yesterday against the same vilain and didn't overpush the river.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $130.85
hero: $378
MP1: $189
CO: $341.60
Button: $145
SB: $240.90
BB: $67

Pre-flop: (7 players) hero is UTG+1 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $8</font>, MP1 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($25, 3 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">hero bets $18</font>, CO calls, BB folds.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($61, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $40</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $80</font>, hero calls.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($221, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">hero bets $160</font>, CO calls.

Results:
Final pot: $541
hero showed 6c 6s
CO mucks As Ah

[gman339]

You got good value out of this last hand on the river...no reason to beat yourself up over it. A push may have been better, but then again you didn't necessarily put him on a hand that strong.