NL10: SB steal attempt

[crashzzz]

This hand turned out strangely leaving me a bit confused. Initially, I just wanted to steal the blind and/or at least show that I'm active since people have been folding to my pre-flop raises so far.

We've played about 40 hands, where 3 times I've raised pre-flop which everyone folded; had QQ and twice AA. So I guess I was a bit disappointed...

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 7 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $9.85
BB: $9.55
UTG: $13.00
UTG+1: $6.70
MP: $10.50
CO: $3.30
BTN: $12.90

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7 Players)
5 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, BB calls $0.30

Seeing everyone folded, I thought my hand was good enough to attack the BB. Villain has been playing loose and has called other people's pre-flop raises, so his calling didn't surprise me too much.

Flop: ($0.80) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.50</font>, BB calls $0.50

I made a cbet of about 2/3 pot size hoping for a fold...

Turn: ($1.80) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.20</font>, BB calls $1.20

His call on the flop started giving me doubts. However, I felt the 6 here was giving me some outs at least and thought I could still go for the pot one last time.

Seeing him call my raise definitely wasn't good. Now, I'm really questioning my decision to raise him again... How bad is it? Was this a reasonable move or is was it desperate?

River: ($4.20) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero ?</font>

The Ace obviously gave me some sight of relief. I guess, if he really had a set, he would have re-raise me on the turn to protect his hand against a possible flush. If he was drawing for a flush, it didn't come. If he had AQ... well, he should have re-raised me again on the turn.

So I'm pretty confident I've got the best hand, so the only question left is how much should I bet? Should I go for a pot size raise? half-pot size raise?

[WantToLearn]

[ QUOTE ]
So I'm pretty confident I've got the best hand, so the only question left is how much should I bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, sir. There´s a lot more to consider.
-&gt; you may have the best hand most of the time, but do you have the best hand most of the time whenever he doesn´t fold to your bet?
-&gt; how can you respond to a raise?
-&gt; if checked to him, will he bet more hands than he will call with?

He either has a real hand, or he has something pretty mediocre, but doesn´t want to give up against a possible steal.
-&gt; your flop c-bet is too small, given limit and situation.
-&gt; consider checking the turn

[chopsticks]

You have goodies here most of the time. Bet 1/2 the pot and shove if villain raises. If you think villain will bet his missed draws like JT or such, check-raise him.

You could be facing hands like AQ, A9 or a set here sometimes but based on the action and the fact that this is NL10 you should be ready to play with your whole stack.

[crashzzz]

yah, I think a check would have been better on the turn. And a bigger raise on the flop as well would have been better.

However on the river, I'm pretty sure my hand is the best here like chopsticks pointed out... This is NL10 afterall, plus I'm against a very loose player here.

Anyways, I made a 3.00$ raise on the river and the BB folded.

Perhaps I should have encouraged him to call me by betting a bit less, more like half the pot for a 2$ raise?

But then again, do I really want to show my hand to the others here?? After that, my raises will get challenged more by everyone. That isn't too bad I guess 'cause my real hands might get called more often this way.

So being a tight player, should I show these types of hands every now &amp; then? or will this make my life more complicated at the table? This is the part where I'm a bit confused on what is better here...

[WantToLearn]

[ QUOTE ]

But then again, do I really want to show my hand to the others here?? After that, my raises will get challenged more by everyone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, thinking opponents will realise that open-raising A6s in the SB is much less of a bluff than raising A6s UTG.

Anyway, I say the one and only play that has a real meta-game effect at NL10 is to make a big laydown. Expect a lot of bluffs after that, especially from players who only play one table. Next to that, but much less important, is beeing a very tight player with a bad run of starting hands, like, folding all hands for 4 orbits or so. Sometimes there´s a villain who will notice that also.

[toymach776]

I think pf raise here is pretty standard from sb. On the flop, Id prefer to make a larger cbet, like 0.65-0.75 to help convince my opponent that I het the flop. Of course I would have to be a little more certain that he would fold to it. On the turn Id prefer to check. This board is not drawy at all so it may be that villain connected in some way. He only called flop bet so check and see if he checks behind. On the river your concern is what vilain has and how much value you can get out of his range given that you are ahead here which you most likely are. I think 1/2 PSB to 2/3 PSB should do fine.

[crashzzz]

Alright...

I'm comfortable with the pre-flop &amp; flop play. Should have bet a bit more on the flop like suggested.

But I'm still not quite sure where I stand on the turn with a low pair against a loose villain. So I have to run a pokerstove simulation to see where I stand...

2,660,665 games 12.110 secs 219,708 games/sec

Board: Qd 4h 9s 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.095% 38.10% 00.00% 1013643 0.00 { Ac6c }
Hand 1: 61.905% 61.91% 00.00% 1647207 0.00 { 44+, A9s+, A4s, K9s+, K4s, Q2s+, J8s+, T7s+, 98s, 87s, A9o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Firstly, is my Villain's range seems right here?

If so, then I'm getting a 38% pot equity. Now, correct me if I'm wrong... If I check and villain bets 1.20$ into the pot I'm still getting +EV to call, right?

EV = pot size*pot equity - cost
EV = ($3.00+$1.20)*(0.38095) - 1.20$ = +0.40$

So basically, if calling villains 1.20$ is +EV, should I be the first to bet out in that case and get some fold equity here?