AKs in tough spot 100NL

[Vince.]

Villain is ~ 16/3/1.2

Looking for comments on flop and turn play.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.50/$1 Blinds
9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $46.00
BB: $104.25
UTG: $105.45
UTG+1: $97.10
MP1: $86.55
MP2: $43.20
Hero (MP3): $101.85
CO: $103.35
BTN: $95.65

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $2.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.50</font>, CO calls $7.50, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP2 folds

Flop: ($18.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12.00</font>, CO calls $12.00

Turn: ($42.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero...

*Note: the original PF raiser is not the villian in this hand

[Chargers In 07]

nvm thought pf raiser was villain.

[CalledDownLight]

I think I go ahead and bet/call for $35, but that might be a little spewy. I just hate c/f though and c/c could be bad if he bets pot. You have clean outs and will fold out QQ and JJ a lot imo.

[pattay]

yea i like to be aggressive here, if i have position im calling or checking probably, but first to act i probably fire away with about 30

[chopsticks]

I like c-bet here, I would do it most of the times.

Turn card is bad for you when playing oop, this would be 10000x better if you had the position. Depending how the villain has played before (i dont know [censored] about those PT numbers, is it vp$ip, pf raise, total af?) i would either bet $25-$30ish or check and see what happens. If you bet and he raises, youre obviously way behind and A or K on the river wont help you but if he just calls he probably has some sort of pp like TT or JJ which he wont be folding if the river is a blanco. If he has a set, he will raise almost everytime here.

Check/calling is also okay but very weak imo and he would probably take the pot away betting the pot. Sometimes you can also check/fold here because youre going to play for a big pot if he calls and the river helps you only about under 30% of the time depending how you define his range.

[Vince.]

So if I bet ~$30-35 on the turn I have to call a shove right?

[chopsticks]

[ QUOTE ]
So if I bet ~$30-35 on the turn I have to call a shove right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. If he shoves you have ~$50+ left and youre probably 80/20 underdog or even worse. IMO $30 is maximum enough here to make TT/JJ and such fold. Betting $35 is almost a full pot which is unnecessary here. I think if you bet $30ish here villain will fold at least 50% of the time.

I don't understand those PT stats you said. Which is what? It would help to specify villains range here if I knew what means what.

[Damntra]

[ QUOTE ]
So if I bet ~$30-35 on the turn I have to call a shove right?

[/ QUOTE ]

-EDIT-

Didn't notice stack sizes. $50 behind after shove.

Fold.

[Vince.]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand those PT stats you said. Which is what? It would help to specify villains range here if I knew what means what.

[/ QUOTE ]

The stats mean vpip is 16%, pfr is 3% and 1.2 is total aggression.

[Vince.]

The Bet/fold line on the turn just seems bad after putting in half of my stack (I could be wrong). Also, if I bet the turn and he just calls, I assume this is c/f on a missed river right?