bottom set vs. broadway type cards on board

[bulldog999]

Poker Stars
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.10/$0.25 Blinds
6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $30.05
Hero (BB): $48.55
UTG: $24.50
MP: $14.25
CO: $7.55
BTN: $81.10

Reads: <font color="blue">33/0.5/1.5 ~50 hands</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, MP calls $0.25, CO folds, BTN calls $0.25, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.10) (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.70</font>, UTG calls $0.70, MP calls $0.70, BTN calls $0.70

Turn: ($3.90) (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.70</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $3.70

River: ($11.30) (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10.70</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises all-in to $76.45</font>

Hero??? I'm thinking calling every time here will be profitable long-term, no?

[Milky]

normally I'd say yet but against that opponent I'm really not sure...

[Nick C]

Getting about 2:1, I guess I would call, hoping to see aces up, a slowplayed KQ, or a desperation bluff-raise. But I'm really expecting to be shown JT (or, occasionally, a better set, but mostly JT).

[doppelganger]

Raise PF. Bet pot on the flop, there are a ton of draws out there and you want to get the money in as fast as possible before you either get drawn out on or a scare card kills your action.

That turn card is beautiful, pot it again and hope to get raised so you can get it all in.

As played the river puts you at a really tough decision because you still have so much left behind. I guess based purely on combos that AK/AQ is more likely than TJ, but his line definitely feels more like TJ to me.

Meh, I guess I make a crying call expecting to lose pretty close to 40% of the time which I guess makes it breakeven.

[doppelganger]

[ QUOTE ]
Getting about 2:1, I guess I would call, hoping to see aces up, a slowplayed KQ, or a desperation bluff-raise. But I'm really expecting to be shown JT (or, occasionally, a better set, but mostly JT).

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not 2:1 it's ~$98:$66 or 1.5:1.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
As played the river puts you at a really tough decision because you still have so much left behind. I guess based purely on combos that AK/AQ is more likely than TJ, but his line definitely feels more like TJ to me.

Meh, I guess I make a crying call expecting to lose pretty close to 40% of the time which I guess makes it breakeven.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, AK/AQ is 18 combos while JT is 16.

Meanwhile, if we're good 60 percent of the time on the river, we have a massively profitable call. Since our stack is nowhere near as big as Villain's and there's already over $30 in the pot, we're getting about 2:1. But, on the river, if we're in a spot where our hand will be best 60 percent of the time and we're closing the action, that call will always be profitable (on average). It's impossible for us to be getting worse odds from the pot than 1:1 in that spot.

[bknollenberg]

i'm not really sure either. i think that there are enough hands he could make that move with that you will be profitable calling in this spot every time, but as i said, i really don't know.

well actually, i don't know if you can put him on AK or AQ here, given preflop action and if he's on the button with that low of a PFR%, those hands are in his raising range. which i think can cancel out a better set too. KQ is the only 2 pair hand i can really see. 77 is likely out too, but i guess he may have thought he had odds to call on the flop given the amount in the pot and the bet size. theoretically that adds in A8, but doubtful.

on second thought, his range, IMO, is basically 78, A8, J10, KQ and a bluff. i don't know what he can make this move with that you beat except KQ, 78 or A8. however, his line doesn't really make sense for those.

[deadmanspoker]

I would raise with your hand PF
raise turn.

As played, i would be calling this, there is only one hand you are worried about (J10) all the others you are beating.