100NL - A Mugging in Broad Daylight

RiverMustelid · #1 09-21-2007, 10:43 AM

But who is getting their handbag stolen?

Villain is 15/11. Aggression factor on the flop is 6, and fold to CBet is 60%, and a pretty standard 20% or so went to showdown. Interested in what people's views are on this 3 bet by me? I have probably run something similar to him, but I don't remember any particular confrontations.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($50.05)
Button ($17)
SB ($25.55)
BB ($68.55)
UTG ($100)
Hero ($98.50)
MP1 ($127.75)
MP2 ($44.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.5, MP1 calls $3.50, 5 folds.

Flop: ($8.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $7, MP1 raises to $20, Hero raises to $52

PokerFun007 · #2 09-21-2007, 11:22 AM

Here's my nitty reply: Fold after being raised on the flop. I might even check the flop here 25% of the time or so. Villain is 15/11 which means his hand selection is fairly narrow. It'd include almost countless things that beat us.

In a word, I think your line is: Spew.

But I'm just a nit...what do you aggro's think?

RiverMustelid · #3 09-21-2007, 11:38 AM

I wouldn't have posted the hand if I didn't have some serious doubts about my play [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

But I don't think its so clearcut - what are the hands you put him on here that beat me?

Specialwon · #4 09-21-2007, 11:46 AM

I think a cbet here is OK on the flop but I think you have to give up after that point unless you have caught him floating light before. Villain should know better than to cold call with anything less than AK here, so his pf cold calling range isn't likely to be much beyond pp's, maybe a big ace from time to time.

His flop raise says AK a set or air to me in that order of probability. Mostly I'd believe him and fold because I think all the genuine hands he could have stack off willingly in this spot.

Sandviper23 · #5 09-21-2007, 11:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't have posted the hand if I didn't have some serious doubts about my play [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

But I don't think its so clearcut - what are the hands you put him on here that beat me?

[/ QUOTE ]

He could have AK any pair 22+ maybe AQ. What was his cold call percentage? How many hands do you have on him?

PokerFun007 · #6 09-21-2007, 11:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't have posted the hand if I didn't have some serious doubts about my play [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

But I don't think its so clearcut - what are the hands you put him on here that beat me?

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you beat? The only hands I can think of are smaller pps and some suited connectors he's decided to bluff with. I think in this case, you're betting he's bluffing. If he was, then good sniffer on your part, but I still think this is over the top.

To your question...He could have:
JJ, QQ, or AKs -- he may not re-raise these
AQ, AKo, or even AJs and KQs

RiverMustelid · #7 09-21-2007, 12:06 PM

I dont think 15/11s flat call AK, AA, KK here. I've certainly not seen this one do so over c1500 hands. I raise with a reasonable range from EP so it would not be wise. This places some doubt on the number of holdings which crush me.

Do I think he is playing back light? Yes I am sure of it. He plays back 40% of the time, raising nearly all of them. So lets say that 35% of every call he makes, he is raising the flop. So yeah - I am looking for spots to play back against him. Is this one?

RiverMustelid · #8 09-21-2007, 12:16 PM

Cold Call % was low - does anyone know how to get HUD info when not at the table. Less than 1%, which to me suggests set mining pairs, and maybe strong connector hands - AQs, AJs?

PokerFun - I agree that these hands beat me - but which ones can stand a 3 bet - e.g. what is your line for him with AQ as your holding?

five4suited · #9 09-21-2007, 04:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think 15/11s flat call AK, AA, KK here. I've certainly not seen this one do so over c1500 hands. I raise with a reasonable range from EP so it would not be wise. This places some doubt on the number of holdings which crush me.

Do I think he is playing back light? Yes I am sure of it. He plays back 40% of the time, raising nearly all of them. So lets say that 35% of every call he makes, he is raising the flop. So yeah - I am looking for spots to play back against him. Is this one?

[/ QUOTE ]

Given all of the above, I like it. Unless you (almost) always c-bet, which increases the likelihood he just called with one of those 3 hands and is now extracting value/hoping you'll bluff 3-bet. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Would you call if he shoved?

CalledDownLight · #10 09-21-2007, 04:14 PM

I really think this is fine. I have thought about making plays like this a lot lately against players that never have an A in this spot, but usually I pussy out and don't pull the trigger.