QQ - check / call river with best hand?

[True]

Absolute 10/20

Villain in hand is 25/17/2.6 and can find river folds, is this a pretty easy c/c river or should we also c/c turn? What hands will call the river if we bet?

Hero raises UTG with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Villain 3-bets in CO, folded to Hero who caps it.

Flop - 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets, Villain calls

Turn - 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets, Villain calls

River - 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="red"> Hero... </font>

From the action I think that Hero is ahead almost 100% of the time and I was wondering if we should c/c this river to induce a bluff from J-x / 99 / TT that would fold if bet into for the third time....

True

[7ontheline]

I'd be pretty surprised if he regularly folds Jx/99/TT here, unless he knows you'd never fire a 3rd barrel here without a better hand.

[jfunk]

this is an easy value bet. villian has 99, TT, AJ here a lot, with 99 and TT being most likely. villian probably would love to see a free showdown with these hands and would probably check behind.

[Spicymoose]

I don't know why you think he will fold his J on the river. Furthermore, if he got this far with 99 or TT, he will probably call the last bet. You definetly are not inducing a bluff from these PPs. You may even get a desperation call from AK if you bet again.

[True]

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I don't know why you think he will fold his J on the river. Furthermore, if he got this far with 99 or TT, he will probably call the last bet. You definetly are not inducing a bluff from these PPs. You may even get a desperation call from AK if you bet again.

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AK would fold on the turn? I guess I would often fold 99/TT for a third bet on the river, that is probably wrong then?

Would J-x bet if checked to?

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[Spicymoose]

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AK would fold on the turn?

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A lot of guys would, a lot of guys wouldn't. It is HU, and a lot of guys just want to showdown their A high.

[ QUOTE ]

I guess I would often fold 99/TT for a third bet on the river, that is probably wrong then?

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I don't know how I would play 99/TT, and I think it is a bit difficult. I might raise the flop, I might call the river, I might fold the river. Since I know I have a tough time deciding what to do with that hand, I figure other people may have a tough time to decide what to do with that hand, and they may call the river. Whether it is right or wrong to do so is a topic for another thread probably...


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Would J-x bet if checked to?

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It might, but sometimes it wont. The point is that I think Jx calls the river bet always (or almost always), yet will only bet the river sometimes.

[True]

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AK would fold on the turn?

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A lot of guys would, a lot of guys wouldn't. It is HU, and a lot of guys just want to showdown their A high.

[ QUOTE ]

I guess I would often fold 99/TT for a third bet on the river, that is probably wrong then?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know how I would play 99/TT, and I think it is a bit difficult. I might raise the flop, I might call the river, I might fold the river. Since I know I have a tough time deciding what to do with that hand, I figure other people may have a tough time to decide what to do with that hand, and they may call the river. Whether it is right or wrong to do so is a topic for another thread probably...


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Would J-x bet if checked to?

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It might, but sometimes it wont. The point is that I think Jx calls the river bet always (or almost always), yet will only bet the river sometimes.

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Very good post, thank you sir.

Bet because there is no point worrying about the hands that will fold if when you bet there are enough hands that will definitely call but may not bet if checked to to subsidise this affair?

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[colgin]

I think that villain in this hand will call a river bet with any pocket pair or split pair hand he could reasonably have here and likely with AK if he had called the turn with it. He may or may not "value" bet (I don't think he would see those hands as bluffing ones) all of those hands.

I would only check the river if I think villain would call a check-raise with those hands as well. If not, I just bet.

[MarkD]

I think villian is going to call you on the river with a lot more hands then he will bet. I think going for the check call here would be a large mistake.

[Nikla]

Bet bet bet.