Quick pre-flop pussy or prudent question

[cheburashka]

Early in a 4.4/180.

Villain is 10/6 over about hands; OPR rates him at ~95%. I have been extremely card dead; this is the first hand I've raised (I also limped 44 from EP and folded on a crappy flop with several co-limpers still to act).

Blinds are 30/15. Folds to Hero (~1300 chips) on button with TT, who raises 60 to 90. SB folds, villain in BB shoves ~1900. Hero???

Now I'd obviously be perfectly happy to run into AK here, and ecstatic to run into 88-99. But my quick thinking is that there are twice as many JJ-AA hands as there are 88-99 hands (even if he's a bit less likely to play KK/AA that way).

So waddaya think?

[bucktotal]

call

edit: i mean. in 4/180s, you see KT,A4,55 etc just too many times to be folding here. maybe times have changed though.

either way, your $/hr will go up if you call. and thats all that matters in these things.

[cheburashka]

I don't think times have changed, but this doesn't seem to be a typical villain. I don't think a good player with 10/6 over 30 hands isn't going to shove KT or A4 (although I guess I could see 55).

But your $/hour issue is very much on point. Following my fold, I continued card-dead, missed a couple flops, and otherwise drifted down to ~800, where I lost by shoving 99 OTB into KK in SB. Basically, a frustrating, annoying hour that might have been otherwise better spent--and had I doubled up on the TT, I could have played the nines better.

[bucktotal]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think times have changed, but this doesn't seem to be a typical villain. I don't think a good player with 10/6 over 30 hands isn't going to shove KT or A4 (although I guess I could see 55).

[/ QUOTE ]

regardless, both terrible and great 4/180 players could push 66-99/AK there. a bad player will do it because its a pair (A high=nutz, plus there will be way more worse hands in his range, sooted stuff). and a good player will do it because he knows he will get called by worse hands often enough for it to be profitable, just high variance.

edited: to make more sense

[levAA]

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Now I'd obviously be perfectly happy to run into AK here, and ecstatic to run into 88-99. But my quick thinking is that there are twice as many JJ-AA hands as there are 88-99 hands

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I don't think you find AA-KK(QQ) played that way very often.
So you main concern should be JJ here, but I think you are ahead most of the time, adding the pot odds this is a clear call for me.

[erc007]

[ QUOTE ]
Early in a 4.4/180.

Villain is 10/6 over about hands; OPR rates him at ~95%. I have been extremely card dead; this is the first hand I've raised (I also limped 44 from EP and folded on a crappy flop with several co-limpers still to act).

Blinds are 30/15. Folds to Hero (~1300 chips) on button with TT, who raises 60 to 90. SB folds, villain in BB shoves ~1900. Hero???

Now I'd obviously be perfectly happy to run into AK here, and ecstatic to run into 88-99. But my quick thinking is that there are twice as many JJ-AA hands as there are 88-99 hands (even if he's a bit less likely to play KK/AA that way).

So waddaya think?

[/ QUOTE ]

The overbet/shove here is so ridic that it is very hard to assign an accurate range to BB here. Your read that he is a good player doesn't really help that much here, b/c his action is so out-of-the-ordinary. He might be smart enough to know that you are good enough to discount AA;KK;QQ from his range when he overbets and he might be thinking that you have to have a hand for him to get action anyway, so why not shove. This might not be that bad if you were aggro pre, but often slowed down post flop.

Unfortunately, i don't think he's doing this with hands that you dominate very often, and u only have 90 in the pot, so i don't see how folding is that bad here.

[TheTanuki]

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I don't think you find AA-KK(QQ) played that way very often.
So you main concern should be JJ here, but I think you are ahead most of the time, adding the pot odds this is a clear call for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Sorry if the answer is obvious. I don't know why JJ is more likely based on his preflop reraise.

Thank you!

[Frank Zappy]

I beg people to turn off PokerAce for this very reason! The numbers don't mean dick, especially in a small sample!

Look at how badly Villain is playing here, what difference does it make if he's 10/4 or 23 skidoo?

I'm calling here.

[ssnyc]

i agree with Lev...only pocketpair I'm worrie about is JJ...bbbbutttt...lately I've started taking the shove line in low buyins with big hands cause I get called by almost any pocketpair (in turbo 180s at least) so no guarantee

[vaNq]

You're not pot committed, and blinds are v. low, so I don't mind the fold; but the point about $/hr still stands.