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calculating when cEV and EV converge / diverge?
There's a thread in high stakes MTT http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...2&fpart=all
where we have a +cEV preflop pushing situation that I intuitively think is -EV. Anybody know how to mathematically show this - or more generally show how to solve this sort of problem? I will summarize the situation here: 12 left in a tourney. You are at a 6 handed table with 56s with a stack of 55K (average stack is 107K making you 10th/12). Blinds are at 6K/12K with 600 ante (5 mins remaining). Other stacks at the table were 110K , 45K, 135K, 80K, 95K in that order. Overall, you are 10th with 55K , 11th has 45K , 12th has 38K, 9th has 80K. Assume everyone calls with the top 6.6% of hands [88+, AJ+], and that your chip expectation of pushing is 58.8K. The payout structure is below. My question is, what does your cEV have to be to make pushing +EV (and what range of hands does this correspond to)? Thank you in advance. 1st 21K 2nd 12K 3rd 9K 4th 7K 5th 6K 6th 5K 7th 4K 8th 3K 9th 2K 10th $1250 11-20th $950 ( 80 places paid ) Blinds are 3/6K with 600 ante 856 players *1500 chips / 12 players left = 107K Average I was in 10th at the time with 55K , 11th has 45K , 12th has 38K, 9th has 80K There was a few mins remaining at this level ( 5 approx ) Thank you. |
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