AA gets CR

[djshawk]

Villian is 32/8/0.81 over about 100 hands. The only note i've got on him is that he likes chasing flushes by calling pot size bets.

Note we're pretty deep, ~150BB

Hero: $95
Button: $60
SB: $75
BB: $93
UTG: $18
MP: £116

Hero is CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Preflop: 1 fold, MP limps $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, SB calls, BB calss, MP folds.

Flop ($8): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checks to Hero who bets $6, SB raises to $12, BB folds, Hero ?

I really didn't know what to do here, I didn't think he had a flush draw since he'd always just called with the fd before. Do I need to raise this? Call and reevaluate on the turn? If I raise then it's going to be something like $40 which will have me tied to the pot.

So I guess my question is: Do I need to felt this hand?

[Guruman]

I think you're too deep to consider going to the felt ui. You may get lucky and get villain to stack off with QQ or KK, but other than that the only hands that go to the felt with you have you crushed.

With that said:
Villain may have air, a pair, or a draw and make this move, as your raising range should miss here lots of the time.

Given those two factors you should probably call, and then bet when he checks the turn. If the turn bricks and he sends a blocking bet your way you can raise/fold, as he'll be very unlikely to bet/shove with a pure draw.

[marchron]

OP, if MP limped .50, I've got you for about 200 BB. Also, Villain appears to have brought his roll in quid — look into that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
you should probably call, and then bet when he checks the turn. If the turn bricks and he sends a blocking bet your way you can raise/fold, as he'll be very unlikely to bet/shove with a pure draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
What if he makes a value-ish 50%-100% pot bet?

[djshawk]

oops, the converter wasn't working so I must have typed £ by habit. MP folded preflop anyway, it's SB who comes along so 150BB is right.

I called the flop bet, turn was 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] pairing the board and completing the FD, SB bet 1/2 pot which from memory was $16...

[Guruman]

I'm going to ramble a bit to try to figure this out, because its interesting to me too.

Villain likes to check/call flush draws, but that doesnt mean he's necessarily incapable of playing them aggressively sometimes depending on what happened after he check/called the flush draws in your previous hands. Did he catch and valuebet? Catch and checkraise? Whiff and not get to showdown? Back into a bluff catcher and then catch you bluffing? etc.

for now lets discount the flop flush draws in his range based on your read, but then we'll reserve the right to change our minds.

Your hand is pretty well defined here. You raised big preflop, then called a big flop checkraise on a low drawy board. This gives you a range that sits squarely in the overpair/two diamond overs range - which is pretty damn strong.

Given the fact that you've demonstrated a lot of strength and the board is so low and unassuming along with the fact that villain kept betting despite that, we should be at least concerned. We don't know if villain loves or hates the third diamond falling, but we do know that he's not scared of it - either because he's got an easy fold to further action or because it added a draw to his hand. I'd give him a rough range of overpairs that have 1 diamond (since they'd checkraise the flop and not be afraid to fire the turn), followed by monsters, followed by pure bluffs that want to push you off of AK.

Given that range you probably don't gain much by raising since you'll push out the bluffs, you may push out the overpairs (or else get pwned when a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the river), and you'll get ruined by the monsters.

Folding's not really a good option either because of how much of his range should be an overpair that has you on AK. It may be ok if you have an airtight read on him, but otherwise its likely to be a bad move for a half-pot bet.

So after all of that I think I'd call and try to check a blank river through.

[Man of Means]

These type of hands I hate, but this is what goes through my head when faced with the situation.

Villain is raising 8% preflop so I'd assume that includes AA-TT/AK although a limped KK is not out of bounds. Pocket pairs (99-22) make up a large part of the limp/call range and also are good candidates for check/raising a rag flop. Postflop aggression looks to be on the low side, so I'd go with PP's + two diamond overs + 54dd etc as a range (although your read discounts the FD hands).

If his minraise is designed to get your stack in, a 2/3 psb on the turn would be a red flag, perhaps bail or perhaps call turn as the last big bet you put in without filling up.

[diebitter]

minraise means big trouble on the flop usually, but it's also used by good players against other good players as it's a very cheap way to announce 'I'm gonna stack you', so a very effective (and underused) push-off tactic. If you've not seen it you probably are doubtful, but trust me, I've folded known good villains with a timely minraise, and have folded to such when they've minraised me. Sometimes.


If a good player minraises me here, I might well fold AA sometimes if we're both reasonably deep, but having said that, folding AA so early is terribly weak and you'll get run over all day by anyone who picks up on that.


My line here is call the flop, and try to get to the end as cheaply as possible.

[djshawk]

I appreciate all the replies guys.

Sounds like a tough spot but the general concensus seems to be to call down at least the turn bet. Well, I folded and he showed 77, which prompted me to post the hand. I'm still not convinced it was a terrible fold but I think I need to accept that I'm going to have to make some tough call downs and expect to lose a reasonable amount of them but win more of them long run.