NL50 KK in 3bet pot on JT8 flop

[chris216]

Villain is 12/9/4 over 50 hands. I guess this is an easy shove against most opponents. What do you do?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($60.20)
Button ($47.15)
Hero ($117.75)
BB ($136.15)
UTG ($60.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $5.50.

Flop: ($15.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $11</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $35</font>, Hero ???

[mdm13]

I fold here. Although small sample size this dude appears to be a set miner. If he has a pocket pair that missed I would think that he would be afraid that this board hit you and fold instantly. Maybe he is doing this with QQ or 99 if he thinks he has some FE but I don't see much you are ahead of here.

[kurto]

Wow...
I would think the two worst hands someone with those stats has is A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or QQ?

1010-AA and A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]?

unless your image is so bad that he does this weak?

that's an interesting hand.

[hennnerz]

I think you are looking at TT JJ QQ. Fold.

[danny8]

your're 63/37 dog if he only has TT+. if you shove your betting an extra $45 to win a $120 pot. not sure if those are good enough odds to make shoving +ev? if ya throw in AK you improve to a 60/40 dog. seems pretty marginal either way

[Milky]

I don't think you're ahead enough here to continue, as I think TT/JJ are a big part of his range.

[Antinome]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are looking at TT JJ QQ. Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Board: 8d Tc Jc

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.641% 46.26% 00.38% 5496 45.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 53.359% 52.98% 00.38% 6294 45.00 { QQ-TT }

That would be a call versus that range given dead moneys, call the rest on a non 9,Q turn. And I think his range is a little wider than that.

Consider that there are only 3 combinations each of TT,JJ, but 6 combinations of QQ that you beat. His gutshot outs versus your backdoor flush outs make it swing a little in his direction. As long as you play it so he can't get away from QQ, we'll be good. Embrace the variance.

[kurto]

why didn't you include KK and AA in your analysis?

[LT22]

50 hands=nothing

12/9 is tight/aggressive by nature, not set mining

I play anywhere from 17/14 to 21/17 and there are tons of times where my stats would be 12/9 over FIFTY hands. It just depends on villains at the table and the hands I get in position.


3bet pot, overpair drawy board, I fist pump when he shows up with AQcc, QQ, AK as much as he has TT or JJ

[Restlys]

true, 12/9 is me sometimes and i averqage out 17/15 on the long haul, somehow i only see villain doing this with AKAQ suited clubs...combo drawing - this is the best scenario imo, you will see TT JJ in that situation often too, IMO id fold this bad board vs this tight agro

might be wrong but wouldnt that be a book example of RIO?? you can win a little but loose alot? if it is id try to avoid this situation, if he called itd be a totally different story but his style is a bad match for you in this specific hand