PS Mid Stages, 21 Outs time to take out the Big Stack?

[Frank Zappy]

Villain was big stack but way over committing on real marginal hands and I was waiting for an opportunity to stack him.

This was after the first break and I was playing well and very confident on my reads. I had a tight, serious image, I think only one of my raises had gotten called at this table.

I put Villain on Top Pair or Second Pair and thought for a long time before...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t1860)
Button (t2610)
Hero (t7027)
BB (t7402)
UTG (t5861)
UTG+1 (t2940)
MP1 (t4755)
MP2 (t3470)
MP3 (t3855)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls t150, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t450) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t7252</font>, MP2 folds, Hero...

[registrar]

Yoou've played with the guy: does he play a bigger FD like this or an overpair or does he play both the same?

[benneh]

you're even money against a range of monsters for this flop (sets/twopairs, AKh, etc). i personally wouldn't count my 8 and 9 as outs, but if you feel confident that they are, you'd be silly not to call with 21 outs twice.

[Frank Zappy]

I thought about the FD or overs but had played similar hands on a stop and go basis and I just didn't feel that would get a push from him especially when I came out firing. Had he called I would have suspected a different range of hands.

The last pot we played together I was able to push him off a hand by firing 2 bullets on a flopped Ace, so I think this was his way of trying to get even with me and I was fairly confident that he had no more that top or second pair.

The way I read it is that he thought I was trying to steal a pot on flopped rags and wanted to push another marginal hand

[Thegunshow]

If you trust your read then go with, but I really don't think you have 21 live outs. How do you like your draw if the guys flips up an overpair with a bigger heart? If the guy has been this much of an idiot, it seems like you could keep playing solid poker and get him to stick his chips in there almost dead as opposed to even money or ahead.

[levAA]

looks like a set to me, that wants to protect against the flush draw, maybe 2 pairs.

with an overpair he should have raised preflop (88 and 99 is unlikely as you hold one) - so i don't think you have 21 outs, but I think we can count 15 outs - if he is on a bigger flush draw and has not paired yet (the 7) you have the 8s and 9s as outs therefor.

so you are actually a favorite winning this - ad the pot odds and it is an easy call.

[tomek322]

[ QUOTE ]
I was fairly confident that he had no more that top or second pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not too sound like an idiot, but if this is accurate than this is an insta call. But the shove gets me scared of a higher FD. At which point we probably have 11 outs, w/e I call.

Doubt this is a set.