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#1
03-02-2006, 02:30 AM
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An exercise in hand reading and blind stealing...(xposted in SSH)
SB is a good TAG, BB is an unknown.
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls. Its time to steal some blinds!!! I'm working on stealing more and getting better at it. My immediate range for SB is any pocket pair, AT+, KJ+ Flop: (9 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls. My intention is to push him off a mid pair, like 66-99, maybe even TT. It is also the last bet i intend to put in this pot.. Then THIS happens: Turn: (6.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls. I was a little suprised at the donk bet on the turn. I certainly don't think the turn card HELPED him, but it helped me. Maybe just a bare ace, maybe even a desperate stab? Maybe a bet/3 bet situation with a big hand. I think he has a bare ace here. Alot. I call intending to raise any non paint river Yes? 
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#3
03-02-2006, 02:49 AM
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Re: An exercise in hand reading and blind stealing...(xposted in SSH)
I'm assuming that this is a good pf steal opportunity. Have you played a lot of hands against this guy? And is his image of you that you would not make this play? If so, it's interesting.
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#5
03-02-2006, 03:09 AM
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Re: An exercise in hand reading and blind stealing...(xposted in SSH)
Okay at first I thought the flop raise was a bad idea and that you should have folded the flop... and to be honest I still think the flop raise was a bad idea and that you should have folded. But you lucked out and hit one of your outs and your guy Donked it. So I sat here for a minute and tried (key word: tried) to think. What does he call a raise with on the flop but pushes with on that turn? This is definitely a hand when your either WAY ahead or WAY behind. If hes a good TAG is he thinking on the third level? Does he want you to raise? Or is it just one last push? Chances are you are up against Ace/Big, possibly AJ but less likely than AK AQ or KK/QQ. He may have waited to bet the turn to see if you were getting any help, possibly putting you on KQs or something of the sort. I think this is a 'call down and check out his cards' hand. I dont think your going to gain anything by bumping the turn and if he checks to you on the river you can bet it or call it if he bets, but going to showdown is a good thing here.
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#6
03-02-2006, 03:10 AM
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Re: An exercise in hand reading and blind stealing...(xposted in SSH)
[ QUOTE ]
I would like to know what you intended to do if you didn't improve on the Turn. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is a good point....
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#7
03-02-2006, 03:24 AM
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Re: An exercise in hand reading and blind stealing...(xposted in SSH)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would like to know what you intended to do if you didn't improve on the Turn. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is a good point.... [/ QUOTE ] he said that was last money on pot, so check/fold ...
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#8
03-02-2006, 03:29 AM
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Re: An exercise in hand reading and blind stealing...(xposted in SSH)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I would like to know what you intended to do if you didn't improve on the Turn. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is a good point.... [/ QUOTE ] he said that was last money on pot, so check/fold ... [/ QUOTE ] Ah. Good to see I'm up to my usual early morning idiot standards. FWIW, I really don't like this steal attempt. 45o? Bleh.
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#9
03-02-2006, 03:32 AM
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Re: An exercise in hand reading and blind stealing...(xposted in SSH)
[ QUOTE ]
Ah. Good to see I'm up to my usual early morning idiot standards. FWIW, I really don't like this steal attempt. 45o? Bleh. [/ QUOTE ] it's -EV
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#10
03-02-2006, 03:33 AM
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Re: An exercise in hand reading and blind stealing...(xposted in SSH)
i think postflop is fine but preflop is just ugly. it's -ev especially with a TAG in the SB who will defend his blind and get you to put in THREE BETS WITH 54o preflop in a heads up pot. wowowowowowoowowowowowowowowowowow.
btw check out the bicycle i am going to buy! 
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