200NL - bottom set 175 deep - 5 way raised pot

[TianYuan]

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($372.34)
SB ($197.00)
BB ($350.89)
UTG ($197.00)
MP ($207.28)
CO ($332.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $8</font>, CO calls $8, Hero calls $8, SB calls $7, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($40) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $11</font>, MP folds, CO calls $11, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $50</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $89</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $39.

Turn: ($229) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $255.89 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $484.89

Villain plays 50/29/2 (2.8/2.8/10) over a 118 hand sample.
He is the reason I'm still playing and not sleeping, as I felt leaving before he did would be throwing money away.

We've only had one previous hand worth mentioning as far as I can remember, where I bet 3 streets in SB vs BB when I picked up a 1 card NFD on the turn and spiked on the river (he folded, so the pot was only something like 35bb).

Alright, I have no real reads despite having been at the table with him for a long time, played a pretty long session so I guess I'll blame it on being tired.

On the flop I raise because I can definitely see him leading with a lone seven or something, and the caller definitely can have something like that.

He INSTANTLY min3bets me.. Uhm, I feel like his most likely holding is a straight here so I feel like I have to call given the price. But, I HATE it.

If I call, board pairs, I still lose to the higher sets, but now also to a bunch of 2 pairs. I stack his straights tho.

If I shove, I'm not sure what he does with 2 pair, but I don't think he has 2pair here so.. It doesn't feel too hot given what calls me.

I'm honestly thinking a flop fold might be best, he's shown EXTREME strength..

Thoughts?

EDIT: Oops@Old title.. I blame it on being really sleepy..
350$ became 350bb :[

[Imrahil]

WTF you're not even 200bb deep. Get it in on the flop jesus.

[TianYuan]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF you're not even 200bb deep. Get it in on the flop jesus.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not a big difference between 350 and 200 IMO.
This is the first set I want to fold on the flop EVER I think..

I really disagree that it's an easy shove :/

[DirteAA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WTF you're not even 200bb deep. Get it in on the flop jesus.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not a big difference between 350 and 200 IMO.


[/ QUOTE ]

200bb deep is $400. 350bb deep is $700. Pretty big difference.

[TianYuan]

I didn't even realize something was wrong while I wrote that reply either.. sleep time, maybe I can read a bunch of 'shove' comments when I wake up.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe you should have just gone to bed.

How is his total AF only 2 when his AF on every street is over 2?

As Imrahil said you're not even 200bb deep. Get it in on the flop, this is why you stayed.

[/ QUOTE ]
Dunno, I assume it's because his PF AF is 1.13, I don't know how PT calculates this.

[DirteAA]

Maybe you should have just gone to bed.

How is his total AF only 2 when his AF on every street is over 2?

As Imrahil said you're not even 200bb deep. Get it in on the flop, this is why you stayed.

[kolotoure]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF you're not even 200bb deep. Get it in on the flop jesus.

[/ QUOTE ]

for realz. wtf at title

[TianYuan]

OhHHHHHHHH
NOW I understand what everyone was talking about

I meant 175 (god I really need sleep) hahahaha

[cs3]

ok heres a couple stoves:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,980 games 0.016 secs 123,750 games/sec

Board: 4s 6c 5d 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.768% 43.43% 03.33% 860 66.00 { 4c4h }
Hand 1: 53.232% 49.90% 03.33% 988 66.00 { AA, TT-55, 87s, 76s, 8c7d, 8c7h, 8c7s, 8d7h, 8d7s, 8h7s }
<font color="blue"> this is including only half the combos of 78o and no combos of 67o, and no 2 pair hands</font>




Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,172 games 0.005 secs 1,434,400 games/sec

Board: 4s 6c 5d 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.478% 56.71% 03.77% 4067 270.50 { KK+, 88-44, 87s, 76s, 64s+, 54s, 87o, 76o }
Hand 1: 39.522% 35.75% 03.77% 2564 270.50 { 44 }
<font color="blue"> i think this range is much more accurate as villain is rediculously loose. it includes all combos of 78 and 67, and all flopped 2 pairs, plus AA and KK (cuz we all know donks love to play them this way.)

i did a bunch more simulations changing villains range up, but no matter what i do hero has no more than 48% equity. now someone do quick math and see if the pot is giving us odds to call. i thinks its a marginal fold on the turn.

flop is a completely different story </font>

[Unknown Soldier]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF you're not even 200bb deep. Get it in on the flop jesus.

[/ QUOTE ]