is stealing blind here pos ev?

[hamnegger]

simple math prob. given bb is short should i attack here or is my fairly big stack reason to just muck.



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG (t6280)
UTG+1 (t6305)
MP1 (t6110)
MP2 (t2100)
MP3 (t3630)
CO (t6635)
Hero (t12020)
SB (t1105)
BB (t4060)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?

[Coz]

You have 38% equity against two random hands, for me it would come down to whether he has been tight or adjusting as his stack got shorter. I suck at math but I don't think you are +Ev in this spot, mostly because micro limit players don't adjust and you are going to be raised alot of the times with anything ranging from 22+, A2+, K7+ QT+. I pulled this range out of my ass and whether it is completly accurate may be up to debate but I still think you would be better off folding.

[erc007]

[ QUOTE ]

simple math prob. given bb is short should i attack here or is my fairly big stack reason to just muck.




PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG (t6280)
UTG+1 (t6305)
MP1 (t6110)
MP2 (t2100)
MP3 (t3630)
CO (t6635)
Hero (t12020)
SB (t1105)
BB (t4060)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like risking 1105 to win 225 here. If u make it 450 and SB shoves, u will have to call, getting 2.7 to 1. There also will be x% of times that BB 3-bets or flatcalls. When BB 3-bets u will have to fold, and when he calls, i'm not sure if position can make up for the times that you are behind/dominated.

[benneh]

i wouldn't. there's no need for you to steal blinds. you have 12k and the blinds total 225. even if it was +EV (i really doubt it is), i wouldn't bother doing it.

a simple mistake a lot of MTTers make I think, is trying to steal blinds too early. wait at least until antes kick in. there's nothing in the pot here to steal.

[donquay]

the sb's stack is my consideration here...as erc said, if he shoves over your raise you have to call

beyond stealing the blinds too early, a mistake made is stealing blinds with a hand that doesn't have very good showdown value when a raise would price you into calling shoves...it's a quick way to go from above average stack to average or below

[hERESY]

not a simple math problem though is it?

[bambam16]

I agree I don't think this is a good steal opportunity because of the SB, but how much do we have to consider the BB in this hand? If he sees us raising light and the SB push, how often does BB isolate with a push himself?

Also, if we price ourselves in with a raise and have to showdown K5o, we could lose future steal opportunities as we expose a piece of our range too early.

[hamnegger]

i went for the steal prob of winning + chance of sucking out i thought was &gt; prob of losing ai or getting repopped by the larger stack.i got called vs ace rag short stack and lost