50nl AQ flops gutshot vs. maniac

[dipstikdave]

how often does villain need to be betting air/draw to make this a good call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($58.25)
Button ($55.70)
SB ($55.45)
BB ($119.65)
UTG ($154.10)
Hero ($48.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, SB calls $11.

Flop: ($32.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $39.45 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $32.75 (All-In).

[bsball8806]

what are his stats? I don't really like the 3bet preflop. I don't really see him having anything that you beat other than another AQ that he calls with pf.

i fold this like 100% of the time

[traz]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,940 games 0.005 secs 1,188,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 5h Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.889% 43.89% 00.00% 2607 0.00 { AhQc }
Hand 1: 56.111% 56.11% 00.00% 3333 0.00 { 22 }

[Micro Donk]

if hes a huge maniac im just raise/4bet shoving him

but as played im folding the flop...

[Ramana]

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,940 games 0.005 secs 1,188,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 5h Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.889% 43.89% 00.00% 2607 0.00 { AhQc }
Hand 1: 56.111% 56.11% 00.00% 3333 0.00 { 22 }

[/ QUOTE ]

so you're saying it's an easy call?

[dipstikdave]

[ QUOTE ]
what are his stats? I don't really like the 3bet preflop. I don't really see him having anything that you beat other than another AQ that he calls with pf.

i fold this like 100% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't have stats cuz i was at work, but he plays at least 75% of hands and habitually raises or pushes the flop. i believe he has air here a lot, as he has been caught a couple of times already.

[dipstikdave]

[ QUOTE ]
if hes a huge maniac im just raise/4bet shoving him

but as played im folding the flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

pf he likes to raise limped pots, but he always just flat calls raises. i thought i would get more value by limp reraising.

[Micro Donk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if hes a huge maniac im just raise/4bet shoving him

but as played im folding the flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

pf he likes to raise limped pots, but he always just flat calls raises. i thought i would get more value by limp reraising.

[/ QUOTE ]

well if he does that, then yeah you would probably get more value. does he call shoves really wide pre? im thinking about limp/shoving...

[dipstikdave]

at the time i thought he'd probly fold to a shove, i hadn't seen him all in pf, only on the flop.

[dipstikdave]

[ QUOTE ]
how often does villain need to be betting air/draw to make this a good call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($58.25)
Button ($55.70)
SB ($55.45)
BB ($119.65)
UTG ($154.10)
Hero ($48.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, SB calls $11.

Flop: ($32.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $39.45 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $32.75 (All-In).

[/ QUOTE ]

can anyone answer my original question? i think villain has air here a lot. pretty sure he has top pair or better almost never when he makes this bet(let's say 10% or less). he might do this with a smaller pair some of the time, but usually he just check calls. the only times he has made a big bet and showed, he was on a bluff(not even a draw).