2NL - AA vs. maniac, deep, drawy flop

[well named]

In a lot of ways this hand is probably routine, but what I want to know is how you think I should adjust my normal play based on the read of the villain. I'm at work so the hand history is reconstructed, but all the relevant details are correct.

Villain is 99/55/1.75 over about 20 hands, WTSD=55%, W$SD=37%. He's been playing fairly aggressively (given the PF stats) and has been betting pretty much any hand where he hit the flop in any way. He's put in 150BB on previous hands with as little as top pair with a jack kicker.

UTG - <font color="red">Villain</font> ($6.82)
BTN - <font color="red">Hero</font> ($4.96)
SB ($2)
BB ($3)

Pre-flop: Hero has [A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
Villain raises to $0.04, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, Villain calls $0.04

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, $0.18)
Villain bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.50, Villain raises to $0.80,
Hero ???

Against most players I'd be very wary of playing for stacks here 250BB deep, but given his recent play I feel like he could very easily do this with one pair, or a pair plus a straight or flush draw. I don't think he does this with absolutely nothing, but I have to believe his range is ridiculously wide. The questions are:

1) Are you happy to get all-in here?

2) If not, what line would you take?

3) How do you think about changing your usual plays based on the villain's stats, reads?

For what it's worth, against a suitable range PokerStove says it's a coin flip. (Any pair 55s or better, any straight or flush draw, two pair, set, or straight)

(Apologies for large-soda stakes :P)

[FluffyLiLClouds]

Your minraises are terrible.

You are giving him a really cheap price to see a flop while also announcing a strong range of hands.

He will call much more preflop, so raise more.

[well named]

I've been second thinking the small raises myself. My thinking at the time was that since he was literally playing any two cards, I wanted to make it relatively cheap for him to see a flop that he might catch top pair on, and I also was hoping he might think I was just playing back at him. However, you are probably right, he probably would have called a larger raise. What do you think about the flop?

[TTStrangler]

Don't sweat the small stakes post, where else would you post it? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Anyway, that 3bet pre flop is not good, you gotta raise more. Players at this level will call some ridiculously big pre flop raises with absolute crap so may as well get as much as is reasonable in the pot now. As far as the flop, again raise more. This may be spew, but he if he raises that, I'm pushing against this character.

[FluffyLiLClouds]

The problem with getting it in on this flop is that he's usually either way ahead (two pair, straight) or only slightly behind. A pair + straight draw has 13 outs, making it a virtual coinflip with AA. Getting in 2.5 buyins on this flop is really bad for that reason.

So how would I play this hand?

I would raise more on the flop. Againt bad players, bet/fold is your best friend. Against this guy for instance, he is crazy preflop, but postflop, his aggression factor is pretty low. That means he's not betting a ton of hands postflop, so when he DOES bet, he's usually not putting two bets in as a bluff.

This is a pretty good rule of thumb for small stakes donkeys: 1 bet could be a bluff, 2 bets never are. If he "donks" into you (leads into the PFR), then make a big raise that doesn't give him odds to draw. If he shoves over that or 3 bets, then you can likely fold.

Not many players at these stakes are capable of a 3bet bluff. They may donk into the preflop raiser as a bluff and they may raise a continuation bet as a bluff, but if you raise them and they 3bet, they usually have a hand they think is good or a strong semibluff.

So to summarize, after his flop donk, I would lead every street for value and fold if he raises or shoves because he'll call with crap, but raise with better.

[well named]

[ QUOTE ]
I would raise more on the flop. Againt bad players, bet/fold is your best friend. Against this guy for instance, he is crazy preflop, but postflop, his aggression factor is pretty low. That means he's not betting a ton of hands postflop, so when he DOES bet, he's usually not putting two bets in as a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you make a good point about the difference between pre-flop and post-flop tendencies, and about most players not B3B bluffing at these stakes. Interestingly, my typical play is to raise more on both streets here, but I was perhaps over-adjusting based on my idea that he had to have a weak hand and I was focused on extracting and too worried about letting him off the hook. Thanks for the perspective.

[TTStrangler]

[ QUOTE ]
Getting in 2.5 buyins on this flop is really bad

[/ QUOTE ]

Point taken, my suggestion to push is probably spew, but I was going off of some of the reads that OP had:

"W$SD=37%. He's been playing fairly aggressively (given the PF stats) and has been betting pretty much any hand where he hit the flop in any way. He's put in 150BB on previous hands with as little as top pair with a jack kicker."

Looks like this guy will bet/get it in with almost anything. But anyway, pushing is probably not optimal, especially with the line the OP took. Bigger raises may have made this hand play out differently though.

[well named]

Beyond the specifics of the hand, i'm still curious about the kind of thought processes good players use to determine how to adjust hand ranges for players based on past play like this. Is it just a matter of experience?

As for this hand, I reraised all-in, he called, turn and river blank, he shows down TJo.

[gedanken]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with getting it in on this flop is that he's usually either way ahead (two pair, straight) or only slightly behind. A pair + straight draw has 13 outs, making it a virtual coinflip with AA. Getting in 2.5 buyins on this flop is really bad for that reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is very true

So how would I play this hand?
[ QUOTE ]
this guy for instance, he is crazy preflop, but postflop, his aggression factor is pretty low. That means he's not betting a ton of hands postflop, so when he DOES bet, he's usually not putting two bets in as a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

This I question. For a 15/14, 1.75 is not very aggressive, but for someone seeing literally every flop, it's psycho. He's still betting twice as often as he calls? Doesn't he ever flop draws?


[ QUOTE ]
1 bet could be a bluff, 2 bets never are.... Not many players at these stakes are capable of a 3bet bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

again, I've got to question that. These levels are full of people that think "outplaying" your opponents means representing AA on every hand.

The way I'd put it is that successful maniacs make all kinds of weird raises and calls preflop and on the flop when the money is small, but what they're setting up is the big all-in hand where they've got the nuts. They make you think they're irrational, but they're only taking the big risks when they've got the advantage.

only 20 hands on the guy, you've got no reason to assume he knows what he's doing. If he's really 100/50, I might try calldown mode to catch him bluffing, but this flop is too scary to challenge him with. His range is way too full of 2pair+ hands and draws. You can be certain he doesn't call a big bet with less, so you'll never have the advantage.

RAISE PREFLOP!


[ QUOTE ]
I was focused on extracting

[/ QUOTE ]

not going to be a problem with this guy, you just need to connect with the flop.