2/4 - playing mediocre combo draw on turn

[microbet]

MP is a good player. He's 22/19 5/6/2. He opens a few more hands than you might, but nothing crazy. He's moderately aggressive, but not relentlessly so. He's been observed no cbetting a whiff and checking behind with trips on a 4 flushed board.

Absolute Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($242)
SB ($534.70)
Hero ($465.50)
UTG ($623.70)
MP ($922.40)
CO ($656.90)

Preflop: SB (not HERO, not me)has A, T.
1 fold, MP raises to $16, 1 fold, Button calls $16, SB calls $14, 1 fold.

Flop: ($52) T, 9, 5 (3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP bets $36, Button folds, SB calls $36.

Turn: ($124) J (2 players)
SB checks, MP bets $80, SB raises to $238, MP raises to $870.4, SB calls $242.70 (All-In).

River: ($1085.40) T (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $1085.40

Put yourself in SB's shoes and get yourself to the turn like that even if you would have done something different earlier.

You have a draw to the nuts and you have a weak made hand which could be ahead. One problem with the draw is that the implied odds are pretty weak since when you hit there will be a 4 flush on the board.

If your only outs are spades you are a 4.5 to 1 dog. The two tens being good would make you about 3.4 to 1.

A king could be a bad river card as AQ or AxKs are possible holdings, but there aren't a ton of suckout cards for him if he's behind.

If the flush hits you will sometime get paid on the river and sometimes not. Assume you average about another $80 on the river and you are being offered 3.5 to 1.

Thoughts on various lines:

bet/fold: Might be a couple better hands that fold, but not many. He will often just call with a lot of hands that are ahead. This means you are setting the price for your draw. Because the implied odds aren't great it's not really easy to set a profitable price for drawing, but you can get fairly close with the added EV when river chk/chk and yhig. Draw back vs. chk/call is, if he raises you don't get to see the river.

chk/call - obviously depends on bet size: If he bets this amount perhaps calling is +EV. Drawback is he might bet more than you would have - maybe more than you can call. Another plus is a free card is obviously +EV.

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some more numbers for when there's one bet ($80) and a call on the turn (with tens no good)

Assume you avg. $80 more on river if you hit.

Pot was giving you 3.5 to 1 on that bet, but you were 4.5 to 1 against. If the pot would have given you 4.5 to 1 you would be good. So, if the bet were $62 instead of $80 you would have been offered 4.5 to 1. So, based purely on the draw you lose $18 on the call.

If the river goes chk/chk and yhig 7% of the time, you get back that $18. Right?
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So, which is better bet/fold or chk/call? Which line gives you better implied odds on your flush draw?


Consider the check/raise or bet/3bet.

Both of these lines are kind of ugly with this stack size. Bet/3bet really leaves you with no FE so I think that is out. The Craise in the actual hand was pretty nasty since it left like 40% of the guy's stack and he was commited with very little equity and no more FE. CRAI would probably have had more FE.

If he calls your CRAI he's likely to have a range of something like [55,99-JJ,78, QK, QsQx, KsKx, AxQs]. He might possibly fold some of those hand, but he might possibly call with AA or JT. You have 23.7% equity against that range. (I think that's 53 possible hands he's calling with)

Hands he could have and still fold, maybe [T9, AA, KKnospd, QQnospd, 88, AK, AQ(not the spade), AJ] 61 hands? He won't always 2 barrel the AK, but he might 2 barrel some other bluffs. Your equity against this range is 58%.

So, 53.5% of the time he folds and you gain 42% in equity or $84 (if he would have bet $80).

46.5% of the time he calls and you lose 76.3% of the $483 that goes in after you decide to crai which is $369. So, $184.

What am I missing? I'm sure there's something missing.

So is a CRAI losing $110?

Is check raising to a smaller amount better? What happens on river if he just calls the check raise?


Now this may seem like a lot of work on someone else's hand, but I think there are some very general things here. It's not all that rare that we find ourselves on the turn with a combo hand that is neither a strong made hand nor a fantastic draw.

It's a hard hand to let go of because you could be ahead and you have some outs to the nuts. The draw isn't worth chasing by itself. The chance of missing the draw and showing down a winner isn't worth much further investment. But, put them together and maybe you have a hand that plays ok from behind and which you can still fold to a river bet without thinking that you played it like a fool.

Other suggestions?

<font color=" white">results: MP had 8c7c</font>

[mythrilfox]

i dont have time to read all that right now, but i really can't see him bet/folding the turn often at all on a board like this, i prefer a c/c or turn lead.

[ManChild]

you arent getting odds to draw, and you dont have much in the way of implied odds.

he has cbet into 2 people on a board that likely hit someone and has tons of draws and he has been seen not cbetting before

thus - i like a fold here, but im interested to hear what others have to say

[Jay Riall]

I fold or raise preflop. ATo is a terrible hand to take a multiway flop with OOP imo.

I would call the turn since we still have the best hand a certain % of the time and we improve to very likely the best hand 20%-30% of the time. The implied odds aren't great but decent enough to call imo, so I don't think folding is an option. I guess shoving could be an option if you think he is bet/folding this turn with any decent frequency (I don't think he is tbh).

[ManChild]

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we still have the best hand a certain % of the time


I guess shoving could be an option if you think he is bet/folding this turn with any decent frequency (I don't think he is tbh).

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if we have the best hand a decent % of the time, then he will be folding to a raise with a decent frequency

(i know you didnt use the word decent, but still)

in addition, the amount of time that we have the best hand doesnt help us as much as one may think if we dont improve bc we will likely be c/f ing if he bets

[Jay Riall]

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in addition, the amount of time that we have the best hand doesnt help us as much as one may think if we dont improve bc we will likely be c/f ing if he bets

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He won't be firing the river very often atall imo with a worse hand.

[ManChild]

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in addition, the amount of time that we have the best hand doesnt help us as much as one may think if we dont improve bc we will likely be c/f ing if he bets

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He won't be firing the river very often atall imo with a worse hand.

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if he is betting the turn with a hand that we are ahead of, he doesnt have much showdown value, you think he will just give up after the turn bet?

[Jay Riall]

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in addition, the amount of time that we have the best hand doesnt help us as much as one may think if we dont improve bc we will likely be c/f ing if he bets

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He won't be firing the river very often atall imo with a worse hand.

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if he is betting the turn with a hand that we are ahead of, he doesnt have much showdown value, you think he will just give up after the turn bet?

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Very often yes.