Jets/Ravens line?

[CutCreator]

I have only been betting the NFL for 5 years and for the last 2 years I was profitable, probably on a heater, but I will take it. So please correct me where I am wrong below.

Does this line seem a little too big to anyone else? I understand that Pennington is likely out and that McNair is likely out. The Jets got destroyed last week by one of the Super Bowl favorites and Ravens lost a close one to the Bengals who I view as a possible wild card team, but if their D does not improve I dont think they will make the playoffs. In addition the Ravens had a ton of turnovers and still only lost by 7. I dont view that as the Ravens being that good, I view it as the Bengals being an average team. (Dont get me wrong, the Bengals offense is all world, but the D while had 1 good game last week, I am not buying it as anything other than sub par.)

I cant see the line at 11 or 12. I cant yet make the Jets this poor of a team, it was 1 game against a great team. But more importantly, i do not see the Ravens as the team they were last year especially with how poorly the offense has been (the end of last year also) and how bad the play calling has been. McGahee isnt going to do anything if he doesnt get the ball enough times. Im not saying that I understand the game better than Billick, but would you not pound the ball a few times with McGahee at the end of that game before letting Boller air it out so close to the endzone?

While I think the Ravens should be favored, 11 or 12 seems high. Maybe I need to change my view of how important Pennington is, he is average in my book. And from what I read 12 is with him out and 10 is if he plays.

Any thoughts?

[MacGuyV]

However you view Pennington is relatively insignificant (though he is probably underrated imo). It's more about his replacement making his 1st ever start on the road vs. a nasty defense...that's a fairly basic recipe for disaster in the NFL.
Also, McGahee pwns the Jets; though you're right about Billick botching the playcalling last week.

[CutCreator]

That is what I am missing, its his back ups first nfl start. that is a factor.

while im still not sure if that warrants 12, i will likely now stay away from the game.

however if Pennington starts do you think 9 or 10 is still about right?

[Arcturus]

The spread IS ridiculous...that's why you should go with Baltimore. The Jets are getting points galore and a lot of people will take those points, even with the new quarterback.

I heard on ESPN Radio today that Boller might even start for the Ravens because McNair is banged up.

[psuasskicker]

As a Ravens super-fanboi, if Boller's starting the Jets should be giving points not getting them.

Obviously that's tongue in cheek, but a double digit spread on Kyle Boller is easy EV.

- C -

[NewEraFan]

In similar lines over the past year Balt was 1-1 against the spread but for Balt to cover that many without stealing signs may prove to be too much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I don't thin Mangini will let this one get out of hand after what happened in the 2nd half last week.