Interesting Hand any Thoughts?

[Stevinchy]

london Victoria £.50/1 ($1/2) cashgame 6-7 handed lot of people gettin up and down at

this point plus obviously this hand is the main memory
made 5 from first by a relatively tight (for the game) old-timer( would make this raise

with as little as JQ didnt see his behavior with pairs) called 3 times (typical of the

game.... extremely loose and stubborn) He was
in bb with 4d6d called, cost me 4 to see a 21 pot gettin approx 5 to 1 and also high

implied odds due to loose table.
Do you think the call was correct?
flop comes 5d7cjd
what would u do when first to act?

I actually checked (with the intent of atleast callin but probably raising)

preflop raiser goes allin for 25

one fold, one good 30 second think then slightly reluctant call, one fold. only me, the

pre flop raiser and the caller left.
pot is 75 i had 15 probable outs 9 diamonds and 6 additional straight cards making me

slight favorite...
i have 25 for the call and 65 leftover the caller has me covered..... what are your

thoughts?

calling is ok but then id be in trouble on the turn with a pot of 100 and 65 left do i

call an all in bet...can i call here knowing i might fold the turn? i think its push or

fold. 15 outs makes me favorite over say AJ and QQ getting a very tasty price.

expectation calculations

90 left in stack...


against AJ and QQ can calcualte whole pot... 25 preflop + 25x2 (allin and call) + my

call makes it a hundred.. then 65 twice for the push and call.... makes it 230 total at

50% chance of winning makes it 115....... +25 expectation.

caller folds is the same as 50% chance of 100 is worth 50 minus 25 for the call and we

get +25

bad situations all in has bigger draw... against KdQd

25% to win main pot expectation 25
still 50% to win side pot so 50% of 130 is 65
total expectation 90 so level

the caller haS bigger draw so 25% to win whole pot
57,50 so - 32.50


i think at least 75% i was in a +25 situation = 19
maybe 10% in a minus situation = -3.25
and 25% in a level situation = 0

total expectation around 15

to get to level situation i would have to be about 40% pluse for around + 10 and about

30% - for - 10 and in my eyes this was definately not the case.

I havent included many of the worse situations but these seemed so unlikely from the

reads i had on the players. neither seemed enthusiastic and from previous play neither

seemed to try to disguise their emotions in any way. Other combinations of draws and

hands are possible but they create similar outcomes and i think you can definately over

analyse hands to the point where the extra work is of no value. I think for this to be a

negative Ev play id have to be in some serious trouble a large percentage of the time..

Another consideration was that i had no equity for hanging on as this was about 15 mins

before the casino closed and this was my only visit.

[pineapple888]

Um, what?

[scatt_man]

hahahaha