Raise fold turn?

H20 · #1 09-12-2007, 03:52 PM

Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero raises, Button folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9SB, 3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7.5BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9.5BB, 2 players)
BB bets,

Villain is 30/20 in 50 hands, seems solid.
Is this a good estimation for making decision while im playing.

Possible hands that beats me unless hes making a total move on me

KK, 99, flushdraw w AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ
less possible, QQ, JJ

Hands I beat AA, AK, KQs/o, TT

I guess raise/fold turn, check river would be best if I trust him a bit, would u raise/fold the turn here against unknown/pretty unknown? Or just a call down?
On the river theres no use raising my 2pair right?

Oink · #2 09-12-2007, 04:02 PM

I agree with your range. So why dont you count the combos and figure out whether you have 50% eq.?

Or I will.

AA = 6 combos
AK (no spades) = 7 combos
KQ = 7 combos
TT = 3 combos. Doesnt matter since he wont call.

So thats 20 hands that calls a raise.

AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs = 6 combos
KK = 1 combo
99 = 3 combos
JJ = 3 combos (but discount those)

So thats 10 to 13 combos.

In other words even if you called a 3-bet and almost always loose you would stil gain by raising.

EDIT: I thought you were asking whether to raise/fold the river. I think raise/folding the turn is pretty awful.

mattnxtc · #3 09-12-2007, 04:04 PM

My gut tells me to just call, but my river decision making is where I am working to improve on. I would think your ahead of most of his range unless you go real unlucky and he had aks.

Leader · #4 09-12-2007, 04:05 PM

raise/call ftw

Board: 9s 5s Kd Jc 6s

Wins Ties Equity
76.52% 0.00% 76.52% ( Kc6c )
23.48% 0.00% 23.48% ( AA,KK,QQ(15),JJ(10),AK,AsQs(50),AsJs(50),AsTs(35), KQ(90),KJ(25),QsJs(15) )

Oink · #5 09-12-2007, 04:09 PM

Leader, you need to add 99. And if he doesnt call a raise with QQ it shouldnt enter the equation.

Leader · #6 09-12-2007, 04:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Leader, you need to add 99. And if he doesnt call a raise with QQ it shouldnt enter the equation.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol closer now, but still raise/call

Board: 9s 5s Kd Jc 6s

Wins Ties Equity
68.71% 0.00% 68.71% ( Kc6c )
31.29% 0.00% 31.29% ( AA,KK,QQ(15),JJ(10),99,AK,AsQs(50),AsJs(50),AsTs(3 5),KQ(90),KJ(25),QsJs(15) )

I think QQ should still be there. Discounted by 85% of course.

Oink · #7 09-12-2007, 05:38 PM

Ya, Hero's raise will look weird so he might get looked up by QQ.

Gurravasa · #8 09-13-2007, 12:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess raise/fold turn, check river would be best if I trust him a bit, would u raise/fold the turn here against unknown/pretty unknown? Or just a call down?
On the river theres no use raising my 2pair right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this at all. Why raise/fold turn with TPNK? And why check river when we hit our kicker? This doesn't make sense. You can't think that villain has a flush every time there is a 3-flush on river, AK, KQ or AA is more likely. Call when you have a mediocre hand on turn, raise when you have a strong hand on river, thats just common sense.

H20 · #9 09-13-2007, 01:38 PM

I thought raise/fold turn to charge fd extra and he will very rarely 3bet with a hand I beat so I can fold safely. Im suprised this play seems so weird, even though I never play like this.

I never said check behind river but not raise his bet, cause when the flushcard hits and he bets I think im probably behind.

danzasmack · #10 09-13-2007, 01:47 PM

don't try and find spots to put a raise in big pot to fold out a hand as strong as top pair.