bad hand with QQ

Kimpan · #1 09-12-2007, 02:55 PM

ok so I screwed this up big time.
PartyPoker $100 NL Hold'em (6 handed) HandRecorder v0.9b

Stacks & Stats
BB ($40.84)
MP ($131.79)
SB ($99)
BU ($98) (21/16/3.00/26) (792h)
UTG ($56.77)
Hero ($200.86)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
1 folds, MP raises to $4, Hero raises to $12, BU raises to $35, 3 folds, Hero calls $23.

Flop: ($75.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BU checks.

Turn: ($75.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $22, Hero calls $22.

River: ($119.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $41 (all-in), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $160.50.

goofyballer · #2 09-12-2007, 03:06 PM

Folding river getting those odds is gross. Either fold turn or call river, and I don't see how you can fold turn cause lol you have a full house.

Kimpan · #3 09-12-2007, 03:12 PM

yeah, decision is supposed to be made on the turn.. I really don't think I'm ahead.. he is 21/16/3, don't think he would make such a weak bet if he wanted me to fold.. Screams strength. AK or AA.
I'm thinking I should have folded turn?

as played though; I actually don't think I'm ahead 20% here. would he bet with anything I beat on both turn and river when he knows I'm getting sick odds to call?

immesan · #4 09-12-2007, 03:17 PM

Against this player im pushing pre...As played call river... why did u call turn if you are folding river? lead out on turn and call a push

SABR42 · #5 09-12-2007, 03:18 PM

Pre-flop is bad.

Either fold or shove there.

SilentNoise · #6 09-12-2007, 03:19 PM

goofy, i generally agree i wouldn't call the turn if i was folding the river. but after thinking about it some more, i dont really understand why its so bad.

i) you think villain ever bluffs the river in a 4bet pot , knowing you are getting sick odds after you have called the turn? i personally think no.

ii) do you think villain ever value bets worse hands? i personally think not aswell.

if you agree he never bluffs and never value bets worse, i dont see how calling turn and folding river is gross, even with these odds. since the odds aren't good enough if you are right 0% of the time.

but in the heat of the session i just shove the turn FOR VALUE, and hope he spite calls with some lower pairs like JJ or something.

mooney · #7 09-12-2007, 03:20 PM

I usually either push or fold here preflop. Any reads? Those PAhud stats dont really mean anything over 26 hands. (except hint that he could be a decent TAG)

Kimpan · #8 09-12-2007, 03:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I usually either push or fold here preflop. Any reads? Those PAhud stats dont really mean anything over 26 hands. (except hint that he could be a decent TAG)

[/ QUOTE ]
700hands, so the stats are pretty reliable.
So calling a 4bet is never ok here? I'm felting a non A/K flop.

mooney · #9 09-12-2007, 04:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I usually either push or fold here preflop. Any reads? Those PAhud stats dont really mean anything over 26 hands. (except hint that he could be a decent TAG)

[/ QUOTE ]
700hands, so the stats are pretty reliable.
So calling a 4bet is never ok here? I'm felting a non A/K flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
700 hands eh? Seems like a decent TAG. Whats the 26 for?

Have you been 3-betting much lately?

Lets make a few assumptions about your opponents 4-betting range. I'd assume he has AA/KK about 40% of the time, AK about 40% of the time, JJ about 10% of the time, QQ about 3% of the time, and some random junk the other 7%.

Lets also assume he will call your push if you push preflop.

40% of the time you will be flipping AK w/ an EV of about +$10
40% of the time you will be way behind AA/KK w/ an EV of about -$64
20% of the time you will be way ahead of JJ or some other random hand giving you an EV of about +$64

So your net EV against his range of hands is .4(10) + .4(-64) +.2(+64) = -$8.80

Looking at your pot odds (assuming he'll call a push), you have about 1.35 to 1

When you combine this info w/ the fact that he will sometimes fold his JJ/other junk hands, this becomes a fold PF.

If you have been 3-betting relentlessly or if villain has shown some LAG-tard tendencies i lean toward a push.

Kimpan · #10 09-12-2007, 06:22 PM

and a call is awful?