How often should you be making certain hands?

[dpdawson]

I know this will vary by play style, but lets use an average sLAG player w/ vpip of 25 and pfr of 20 and a 1000 hand sample.

On average, how often should he be hitting flushes, straights, and boats?

Is this possible to determine? Is this a way to tell if you are running bad?

How about determining how often certain strength hands should win? If you are getting coolered, your premium hands should be losing more than average, right? Is this a way of determining if you are running bad?

And as I understand it, programs like pokerev, which only look at how bad your luck is after the money is all in would not take this kind of bad luck into account. Is this true?

Just a few queries during a sleepless night.

[DarkMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
I know this will vary by play style, but lets use an average sLAG player w/ vpip of 25 and pfr of 20 and a 1000 hand sample.

On average, how often should he be hitting flushes, straights, and boats?

Is this possible to determine? Is this a way to tell if you are running bad?

How about determining how often certain strength hands should win? If you are getting coolered, your premium hands should be losing more than average, right? Is this a way of determining if you are running bad?

And as I understand it, programs like pokerev, which only look at how bad your luck is after the money is all in would not take this kind of bad luck into account. Is this true?

Just a few queries during a sleepless night.

[/ QUOTE ]


Depends on opponents so much. If your opponents are tight and aggressive and good you're gonna be seeing less flops, turns, and rivers and therefore less big hands. Loose and passive opponents will see more flops, turns, rivers.

You can probably make an estimate. Start off with a loose passive game for a player who sees every river. You can easily google the odds of getting dealt specific hands in 7 cards, and so that would apply to this person. Then since you only see 25% of flops, multiply that by .25. But since you'll be seeing the flops only with good cards, eg pairs and suited connectors, and folding offsuit unconnected hands, you can increase these numbers a fair bit. But you'll also have to adjust for the fact that you'll be folding on the flop a fair amount too.
I don't really have the time to do a quantitative estimate out, but you can see how you might go about doing it, or maybe someone else will for you.

And yeah, so far as I know, PokerEV does not take that stuff into account. Think about it, how is it supposed to know that top set over middle set is a cooler but top pair over middle pair isn't.