400NL TT on J high flop, steal situation

[Toretto]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $505.60
Hero (BB): $400.00
UTG: $527.90
MP: $578.90
CO: $66.00
BTN: $410.40

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $14.00</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $48.00</font>, BTN calls $34.00

Flop: ($98) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $70.00</font>, BTN calls $70.00

Turn: ($238) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($238) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero


Pot Size: $238.00 ($3 Rake)

villain was tag, 20/16 with 20 wts
it was my very first hand at the table, so no history
i think the turn check is standard, but do you see any value at the river by betting? do you think he will call a mid pair?

toretto

[SykoraG]

I don't think you're beating much. AK would have 4 bet you PF given TAG villain. I think you see JJ + here ALOT. Only hand you beat is 99. I just c/c c/f.

[Suigin406]

AJ is not a holding and prolly not AK, QQ could play like this if villian is somewhat passive, JJ, i think lower PP's make up a small part of his range after he calls ur flop bet, aggro factor would help here

[Toretto]

hm just looked it up, he hase total AF 5.8
flop AF 5.13
turn AF 5
river infinity
over 500 hands

[nuggetz87]

well i shove here sometimes as a bluff..trying to make them think i missed a turn c/r. but you have to really think they'll fold.

i would usually c/f cause he's checking behind stuff like 99 that you beat and he's not gonna call your flop bet, check the turn and then bluff the river with complete air.

[nuggetz87]

[ QUOTE ]
hm just looked it up, he hase total AF 5.8
flop AF 5.13
turn AF 5
river infinity
over 500 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not like he called the flop with AK though...what could he possibly be bluffing on this river?

[Toretto]

yeah i thought when he tries to float that flop he would have fired at the turn, so i think i would call a 1/2potbet at the turn if he bets
i dont think he will be bluffing on the river, the only question for me is if there is any value in betting here?
with his slightly higher wts than normal he could call with some midpairs i think, what about a 100$ bet?

[nuggetz87]

could be good...it would be really really thin though. most of the time i think you're just valuebetting yourself against a J.