10NL. How sure can i be of the outs?

[Woody317]

Sorry no HH.

I'm the bigstack with 18.50.
Other stacks both about $10

Pick up 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the CO

Preflop: UTG calls 0.10, MP calls 0.10, Hero Calls 0.10, button raises to 0.80, SB calls, BB Folds, UTG calls, MP calls, Hero Calls

Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets 0.40, UTG raises to 0.80, MP folds, Hero Calls 0.80, Button Raises All in to $8.10, SB raises all in to $8.35, Hero???

Preflop's marginal at best but the button stacks off with overpairs on any board.
I know i'm getting the odds to hit my flush but is the possibility of a higher flush or the chance of a set hiting a boat ruining those?

[kroeliewoelie]

My experience: probably one of them has top pair or a set and the other one a flushdraw. And personally I don't think your flush outs are good here.

If I put this in Pokerstove and assign one player a set, TPTK or TPGK and the other one any two diamond cards not on the board or in your hand, then i get the following results.

908,418 games 0.090 secs 10,093,533 games/sec

Board: 3d Kd 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.435% 18.43% 00.01% 167420 51.00 { 9d8d }
Hand 1: 56.977% 56.94% 00.04% 517259 331.00 { KK, 99, 33, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }
Hand 2: 24.587% 24.56% 00.03% 223077 280.00 { AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd7d, Qd6d, Qd5d, Qd4d, Qd3d, Qd2d, JdTd, Jd7d, Jd6d, Jd5d, Jd4d, Jd3d, Jd2d, Td7d, Td6d, Td5d, Td4d, Td3d, Td2d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 7d3d, 7d2d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 6d3d, 6d2d, 5d4d, 5d3d }

So fold, I would say.

[Lego05]

Pre-flop's alright. Raising yourself may be better, but it may not.


I don't like your call on the flop....I think you should have raised.


As played get it in...just hope that no one has a higher flush draw.

[corsakh]

So what did UTG do?

[Woody317]

Sorry UTG folded to the flop shove

[corsakh]

Then he probably had two of your outs. One of them is going to have a two pair or a set. Your drawing thin.