K7 in BB hits 2P2K on dry flop, SB leads

[ChickenGeorge]

SB is 18.4/7.37/1.68 over 217 hands. Haven't seen him done anything unusual so no special notes yet.

MP3 is loose 42.6/14.7/0.9 over 68 hands, his WTSD is 30%.

Titan Limit Hold'em, $0.50/$1.00 10 (Titan HH Converter by Kreatief)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, Hero checks,

Nice, I got a free flop.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( 1.5BB, 3 players )
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, SB calls,

Flop is dry, so a bet probably represents a pair of some sort. Usually this is a J but it might also be a weaker 7 which I outkick or some lower PP. My hand might be good and I raise to knock MP3 out - I would like to see Ax and various other overcards to my 7 to fold. And if SB 3-bets I know I'm beat, but he just calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( 3.5BB )
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls,

Great card, easy bet.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( 5.5BB )
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls,

OK, so he probably does have a J and now he improved to a FH but I call anyway. The pot is not that small. Am I good here at least ~14% of the time? There might be some small chance that he is bluffing or perhaps holding Ax...

[Xylocain]

:g:

call flop, you don't want to protect this small pot because you probably dont have the best hand on this dry board and MP3 if he calls is unlikely to improve to a better hand if you improve. If the bet came from late position the c/r would make more sense since that would imply a wider range of the bettor.

river is thin but fine.

...nice suckout fish. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[tyler_cracker]

i agree with xylocain.

[CrMenace]

Chicken, raising flop is real, real bad. As you say, villain usually has a J. How often would he need to not have a J (or pair &lt; 7's) for raising to be a good idea here?

[Point Blank]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop is dry, so a bet probably represents a pair of some sort.

[/ QUOTE ]

well - this guy's stats aren't too aggressive ... but
this is a typical steal flop (ie. dry and short handed)
you should be betting a fair amount of these

I don't like the raise ... the mistakes others make are amplified by the small size of the pot (this guy can also just fold it on the spot, when he has nothing)

[CrMenace]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a typical steal flop (ie. dry and short handed)

[/ QUOTE ]

Which might be relevant except we aren't in a steal situation. Instead, a reasonably tight, somewhat aggressive villain led into two on the flop.

[Point Blank]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is a typical steal flop (ie. dry and short handed)

[/ QUOTE ]

Which might be relevant except we aren't in a steal situation. Instead, a reasonably tight, somewhat aggressive villain led into two on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

your point [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

a steal flop is not the same as a 'steal situation'

you should be betting a fair amount of flops like these with nothing

a steal flop is a dry flop in a short handed unraised pot

[CrMenace]

Oh Okay PB. I was associating steal flops with blind steals.

[Bulletproof Monk]

this is fine. calling the flop would be fine too

[ChickenGeorge]

Let's see it from the SB's perspective for a moment. Small pot, dry board, BB on his left has a random hand and is a tight player, while at the same time another player who raises preflop quite often only limped in.

When your opponent holds two different cards (a nonpair hand), flop misses him (=still no pair) almost 70% of the time. When we're dealing with two opponents the probability of both of them missing is still almost 50% (0.7*0.7). SB risks only one small bet to win 3 right there and on a dry board with a tiny pot, well, wouldn't it be worth trying?

And that's why I didn't give him a credit for holding a J just yet. Comments on that welcome.

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EDIT: I admit that in this particular hand I was thinking that he probably holds Jx or 7x, but now when I think again I am more and more convinced that this could actually very well be a pure bluff often. He is not a predictable weak passive player, at least according to his stats.
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BTW, what's the plan if I just call (and MP3 folds) and he fires again on the turn (and let's assume I don't improve)? Is that convincing enough that he holds a J and we can thus fold or not?

I really believed raising would make my future decisions easier. Besides MP3 might even fold a weak suited Jack (he is loose enough to play any two suited cards IMO).