100NL: whiffed AK, cr bluff

[SimaoMacaco]

+EV line or spewy.

Villain is 20,8 over around 100 hands.. nothing particular to note from his play.

At the flop i have his range as (AK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99) + possibly underpairs of which i except him to fold AK, unders and possibly TT (its the happy go lucky weekend). I recon he folds 70% (4.4/6.2) of his range to my bet and i am getting even money, seems +EV if not the best line OOP.

Agree? disagree?

Does anyone call here? as we are committed if we do?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $95.50
BB: $87.70
UTG: $128.25
UTG+1: $85.75
MP1: $100.40
MP2: $136.60
CO: $59.25
BTN: $21.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $3.50</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $11.00</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls $7.50

Flop: ($23) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP1 bets $11.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $35.00</font>, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $68.00</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $33.00 returned to MP1

Pot Size: $93.00 ($3 Rake)

[Johnes Benjamin]

usually i would lead here b/c he wil fold a lot and you don't want to have to put in more money to find out whether he thinks he's ahead. plus its just more straight forward and you want want to be repping straightforward "im not letting go of my big hand" aggression to make him back off
other than that, this line looks very strong so its not like you shouldn't ever use it.

nothing wrong with folding here.
there is something wrong with calling

back to bed

[CalledDownLight]

no one is believing a c/r here imo, but I think you have to fold now.

[Keyser112]

folding was the right play. imo he has at least an overpair

[SimaoMacaco]

[ QUOTE ]
no one is believing a c/r here imo, but I think you have to fold now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yet everytime i try take the exact same line AA or KK they always seem to fold =D

Out of interest.. Does the CR size matter here at all? obviously a CrAI is a different ball game.. but PSB or 125% PSB etc.? same difference here..

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
no one is believing a c/r here imo, but I think you have to fold now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yet everytime i try take the exact same line AA or KK they always seem to fold =D

[/ QUOTE ]

on paired boards? Why are you taking this line more than very rarely anyways?

[HonestRyan]

raise more PF, like to 13 or 14. and then lead flop. 3 betting PF and then checking the flop looks like u are completely lost and have no plan of attack. you should also have his "Cbet %" and "fold to a Cbet" stats up.

[onoble]

I dont think you raised enough to bluff here. And whats your plan if villain calls.

I think if you're gonna pull this off you need some sort of history to make it effective, and even then raise more.

I think your Cbet will accomplish the same at less risk.

[pattay]

i like reraising more pre here because you dont have position. also, i almost always lead this flop, with the exception of some *very* scary boards like QJx. like was said earlier, if you bet enough on the flop, you should know where you stand without committing as much money as your line. as played, easy fold IMO.

[SimaoMacaco]

In 150k hands i tried this line 3 times on a RR pot (twice on non pair boards and once on paired board) and its NEVER worked out.. so i guess its for the bin. ++ it does not serve any useful shania purpose as its rare to play any legit hand this way.