2/4 - How's this flop/turn combo?

JrJordan · #1 09-09-2007, 11:19 AM

UTG is a fishy 36/8 type who only minraises preflop. SB is a solid TAG 21/13 who hasn't done anything super tricky in a few orbits together.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($513.15)
BB ($150.30)
UTG ($313.80)
Hero ($385.15)
Button ($427.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $8, Hero calls $8, 1 fold, SB calls $6, 1 fold.

Flop: ($28) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $24, SB raises to $72, UTG folds, Hero calls $48.

Turn: ($172) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $148, Hero raises to $305.15

recallme · #2 09-09-2007, 11:37 AM

I could find a fold on the flop.
The 6 is a cery good card for you, so this could be good now

Albert Moulton · #3 09-09-2007, 12:15 PM

SB didn't reraise preflop. So, let say he prob. doesn't have AA,KK,QQ,AK. He might just call AQ/JJ if he likes to play JJ-TT for set value rather than for a 3-bet preflop OOP. KQ and JQs might also be in his range. 66 would be in his range, but the 6 on the turn makes 66 very unlikely. Plus he'd probably check quads on the turn if he had them. I don't think A6s would play like this because I think he'd fold A6s OOP preflop. And of course, there are all kinds of suited connectors and semi-connectors like 5s6s,6s7s,6s8s,7s8s,7s9s,8s9s,8sTs,9sTs,9sTs, and some unusual OOP bluff with air (which seems unlikely).

You are quite a bit ahead of most of his draws, and quite a bit behind 6x, QJ, and JJ.

Overall, your equity vs his likely range is only about 30%.

Board: 6d Qs Js 6c
equity
30.051% { KcQd }
69.949% { JJ, AQs, KQs, QJs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, AQo, KQo }

And as for what he thinks you have, he probably puts you on a similar range since you didn't reraise preflop either. Depending on your aggressiveness preflop, he might actually discount AQ and JJ if you reraise those from MP. He might also discount 66 and QJ since you only called his c/r instead of pushing with top two pair. That means he puts you on a top pair hand, or a draw. But if you had a really big combo draw, wounldn't you have reraised or pushed the flop while you still had a maximum number of outs? So, his c/r then lead seems to indicate that he thinks you have a top-pair weak kicker hand and that he's either ahead of 1-pair, or he's got good fold equity OOP with this line vs top-pair weak kicker. But then his bet size on the turn isn't big enough to have fold equity vs top pair, so I think he's ahead. That means, I think you can fold the turn since he probably has 1-pair beaten.

As for calling or raising instead of folding, you know that his line pretty much commits him to pushing most rivers and calling if you push the turn. So, if you call the turn lead, you probabably have to call a safe river push, and possibly fold to a spade river push. But that's not particularly appealing since on a non-spade river, you are still only about 30% equity vs the range I've laid out. And if a spade hits, then only 10%.

But if you push the turn, as in OP, you offer about 4:1 pot odds which will be marginally correct for most of his combo draws to call, and slightly incorrect for naked flush draws to call. I think he frequently calls with most of those draws, as well as with all the hands that beat you. That means you have no fold equity, and get all the money in with about 30% equity vs that range.

So, given all that, I think you can fold the turn or even fold to the c/r on the flop, where you have only 33% equity vs the range I've laid out.

FWIW, I always seem to misread these 6-max hand ranges. Where is my range and read off so much that OP's call on the flop with the intention of pushing a non-spade turn over another lead from OOP TAG villain bet becomes +EV?

JrJordan · #4 09-09-2007, 01:30 PM

Nice analysis. I'd make a few adjustments to villain's hand range that likely improves my equity. I'm fairly confident villain is 3betting JJ preflop because of my cold call and the min raise from the fish. Even most TAG players are 3betting AQ in this situation, but I guess he could just cold call if he thinks UTG's range is super tight. I'd also include semibluffing OESD hands like KT and 9T (suited for sure and unsuited perhaps).

There's also a non-zero probability that he thinks I'm just betting the flop when checked to. When I call the c/r, a significant part of my range is draws of some sort. When the 6 hits the turn it's a great card to double barrel since draws are facing a big bet on a paired board. It's tough to assign a number to this, but it should be significant.

MatthewRyan · #5 09-09-2007, 02:55 PM

raise preflop!

Jamougha · #6 09-09-2007, 03:48 PM

That range is really bad. he's closer to QJs, 66, draws, against which we definitely get the money in.