boggled by pot odds

[Jobo]

Please bear with me as I launch another noob-tastic question at ya'all...

I'm still studying Sklansky's small-stakes book and I'm having trouble wrapping my head around pot odds. I can follow what's being said about things like calling a 4$ bet to win a 40$ bet so my odds are 40-4 or 10-1, BUT... that's not quite my problem. My math is sketchy sometimes, but I mean, I can follow this. What I can't follow is the reasoning.

The way it looks to me is that I'm NOT risking 4$ to win 40$ at 10:1 odds. What I'm really risking (throughout the play of the whole hand) is EVERY dollar I've put into the pot so far, trying to win that pot. Thus, winning ONE 40$ pot out of ten hands that have played similarly (and cost me far more than 40$ in total bets) does NOT make me any profit. There's no way I want to lose 9 similar hands for the 1 chance to hit a big pot, I'll go broke before then.

So, I know there's a logic to only valuing a single bet against whatever's in the pot to determine your odds, but I can't see it. All I know is that it takes more than that one bet to get me however far into a hand I am, and if I'm not winning the hand 9 out of 10 times, why the heck should I play it at all, let alone continue it for more bets just because the "odds are good"?

[Cry Me A River]

Any money that's already in the pot is not yours any more.

I buy a used car for $2000. The book value of the car is $2000 because I sux at negotiating.

I drive it a bit, something goes wrong, and I need a $200 repair.

By your logic above, I should just go buy another car. Because in effect, I'm paying $2200 for a $2000 car.

I should just go buy another $2000 car instead, right?

[metsandfinsfan]

you cannot do anything about the money that is already in the pot. If you made mistakes preflop or on the flop there is nothing you can do about that now

In your example, it costs you 4 dollars with a chance to win 40. Let's say this is a flush draw on the turn. There are 9 cards that will give you that flush out of 46 unseen cards.

So if you played this hand 46 times, on average by calling the 4 dollars, 9 times you would win 40 dollars, and 38 times you would lose 4 dollars

9 * 40 = 360
38 * (-4) = -152
in 46 turn you would win on average $202 dollars, or $4.39 cents each time you call. You had about a 1 in 5 chance of making your flush but the pot was laying you 10:1 odds so it is clearly profitable

[Rek]

As the others have said, any money you put in the pot so far is no longer yours so you can't take that into account.

The point I want to make to any new players though is that you must be happy that when you play the odds you are playing with a hand that can win. In other words when you hit your hand will be the best. I see people calling and even when they hit what they want they are still likely behind.

I don't think I have explained that well but I hope you understand what I am trying to say.

[Rookcifer]

I am a new player as well, but I think I have gotten a decent grasp on the concept. Really, what you need to understand about pot odds is the "big picture." In the big scheme of things, you are not looking to win every hand or every session, but rather are looking to make plays that always have a positive expected value (EV). This means that if you make the right play it will win you money over the long haul. EV is an average, and averages do not imply positive results every time.

To calculate EV, take all possible outcomes of an event and assign each one a probability. The result multiplied by its probability is the EV. Obviously, you aim for results that are positive.

If the pot is offering 10:1 to call (not even taking implied odds into account) and you are 5:1 in making the nut hand, a call is definitely the right move. You will not win every time, but on average you will make money. This is not opinion, but merely a fact of statistics.

[Rek]

"If the pot is offering 10:1 to call (not even taking implied odds into account) and you are 5:1 in making the nut hand, a call is definitely the right move. You will not win every time, but on average you will make money. This is not opinion, but merely a fact of statistics."

Yes spot on. But the point I was trying to make (and I know I didn't explain it well) was that you are rarely drawing to the nut hand. That is straight math. What I do see, for example, are people thinking I am getting 6-1 therefore it is a good call to lets say draw to a straight when there is an obvious flush out there.

[Jobo]

5:1 for making a winning hand with 10:1 odds from the pot making it correct to play... that's a little easier to swallow. Like I said, I can understand the concept that "the money I put in the pot is no longer mine" in an abstract way. But what I need to learn is how to win more money from given hand catagories than what I've lost with those same hands. I figure those are the kind of odds I need to know about. i.e. if I'm 5:1 to make the best hand then then money I need to invest trying to win those 4 losing hands had better be less than what I've finally won by the fifth hand.

Most of my play is still in the limit hold'em micros. From what I've seen even marginal hands often have enough odds to call single big bets. I know I'm missing something important in my play. It's so frustrating trying to make the right reads and plays while watching the chips I've just won from 1 or 2 big pots trickle away in a few rounds. The strategies that won me the big pots also lost me a ton of little pots when my (presumed) tight starting hands couldn't hold up.

understanding the odds, and when to fold instead of continue, is what I'm trying to nail down. I can't help being attached to the chips I've thrown into the pot already! :-P They're mine! And I put them in there expecting to win the pot, not just hoping I can beat the odds.

Thx for the replies so far, peeps. I'll keep chuggin.

[Rek]

Hi Jobo, I'm sorry but I think we are missing your point. Now regardless of what you have put into a pot the next decision is independent of all that has gone on before. The odds will be the odds and thats what you need to concentrate on. Don't get distracted about what you have already put in - that is done and over with.

[Rookcifer]

Jobo, if this is your result, then you are not making positive EV plays. This means you are calling bets when the pot odds do not justify it and you are also perhaps folding hands when you should be drawing. If you make correct EV plays then over the LONG RUN you will make money.

Since you are still playing Limit, I highly recommend a book to you. It is entitled "Weighing The Odds in Hold 'Em Poker" and was written by King Yao. Even though it is a limit book, the mathematical discussion of Hold 'Em odds applies to NL as well. The book supplies you with all the odds of making hands, it explains pot odds, expected value, when the odds say you need to call and when they say to fold. The odds of drawing to hands wont change between limit and No Limit, so the book works for both varieties inasmuch as the math is concerned. However, when it comes to strategy, the book should not be followed as closely in No Limit as it should be in Limit. A lot of people on these forums say it is one of the best Limit books ever written, and I can see why they say so (even though I have only read two poker books).