Is online poker rigged? Research program

[gaijinuronin]

Hi all,


Some people say that online poker sites are trying to curb the flow of money from bad players to good players in order to boost their profits.
Is very hard to prove mathematically somenthing like that BUT I can do some math against specific situations.

THE PROBLEM:

Let's say I have hands H1,H2,....Hn where you are against one opponent and one of you two (or both) moves ALL IN.
Let's name your equities E1(H1),E2(H2).....when an ALL IN situation occurs before the river.

Let's define a function that returns the size of the pot when you WIN and 0 when you loose.
R(i)={ 0, if you loose
POTSIZE(i)/2, if we have a split
POTSIZE(i), if you are the winner
}


R(1)+R(2)+R(3)..................
and
E1(H1)*POTSIZE(1)+E2(H2)*POTSIZE(2)+.............. .

SHOULD CONVERGE!!!


The problem definition is somehow similiar with the one from 'all in luck/with total winnings' tab from Poker EV.
The differences are:
1. i dont take rake into consideration ..the game is considered 'ideal' (no rake)
2 only headsup 'all in's are considered in my program
3 In POker EV POTSIZE(i) represents the money bet only on the 'all in' street and not total pot size after all in like in my program


HOW TO RUN
The program is supposed to work with PT database (Access/Postgresql->ODBC access)
You also have the option to filter between 'big pot'/'small pot'/'all pots' ALL INs
The program will save 2 log files with the analyze and creates a chart with your result in ALLIN.png image file.

The conspiracy theory says that more than 80% of the winning players dont win their share of 'all in' pots.
With your help this theory can be confirmed or not.

I will appreciate if you can posts your results in this topic along with the mention
big/medium/marginal winner/looser

You can find the program here:
ALL IN PROGRAM

The following image is obtain by running the program against a 250k database and filtering after 'all in' pots>80BB



Thanks,
Valentin