overpair in position facing a check raise on the flop => best line ?

[macca456]

hi,

i want to optimize these situations:
no information on the vilain

UTG (100BB)
MP (100BB)
MP2 (100BB)
Button (100BB)
SB (100BB)
BB (100BB)

Preflop: Hero A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (or KK or QQ)
3 fold, Hero raises 5BB, SB fold, BB calls

Flop: 11BB X X X
BB check, Hero bets 8BB, BB raises xx

what is the best line on these flops figuring the amount of the check raise (min raise 16BB or raise 24BB):

flop 1 : 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

flop 2 : J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


thank you [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[macca456]

i have seen in this post :
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...n=0&page=7

that, i should have checked flop 1 and not CB according to the book mathematics of poker of Chen.

[jay_shark]

There is nothing wrong with betting here . You can't be fearful of a check raise . If he's on a draw and you shove all in he's getting 130:70 on his call which is incorrect here if he has a flush or straight draw .

So as played , I would bet the pot , and shove all in hoping he makes the incorrect call . In fact , I would encourage him to call me if he's behind on a draw with less than 35% equity .

[jay_shark]

Flop 1: If he miniraises , you should definitely be even more inclined to raise him back with pocket aces . I would associate any player who miniraises in this spot as a weak player . Of course , even strong players occasionally play their hands in an orthodox way .

Flop2 : This one is a bit tricky and it does depend on what he knows about you and what you know about him . How often would he check raise with tptk or an overpair lower than your aces ? How often would he check raise with a set ?

With some players , a check raise in this spot definitely signals a hand that beats all single pairs .

[masman21]

Min raise scares me more than a bigger raise. Too many times I've seen people min raise with the nuts.

Out of position with a big pair (not aces bigger than a J), I would certainly think the person would reraise preflop. Even with Jacks or Tens. So either flop you can probably eliminate top set. It would seem more likely to smooth call with a small pair hoping for a set on the flop. Still only put them on a set about 15% of the time.

With no information on the Villian, pushing with your Aces would seem best here with the thought he would have tptk (flop 2) or straight or flush draws (flop 1). If they call and get lucky, you know you can exploit his style later. Some people will call preflop just because they think defending their BB is correct. He may have you on a much weaker hand than Aces and think your post flop bet to be just a continuation hence the reraise.

I would say 15% he has the set and there's nothing much more you can do but say nice hand. About 30% he'll fold to an all in bet. 25% he'll call with a draw and draw out about 8% of the time. Probably 15% each for two pair or top pair top kicker, so most of the time you'll be way ahead.