Bottom set vs. flush draw ... line check

[hagbard celine]

Villian is very good thinking player, and has been leading with these blocking bets all night with his draws. My read on Villian is that he is on a flush draw, and my thinking is to give him exactly bad enough odds to draw, while enticing him with thoughts of implied odds.

Then MP calls, and my whole plan goes to hell. Thoughts on flop play. I understand that shoving isn't necessarily wrong, but is calling > shoving because I can get away from the hand when/if [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the turn?

The hand:

$0.50/1.00 NL hold' em, 6-handed

Pot is straddled for $2

UTG folds, Hero calls $2 with 4h 4s, MP calls $2, CO folds, BTN calls $2, SB folds, BB folds, Villain checks

Rough stack sizes:
Hero $400
Villian $280
MP $150
BTN $120

Flop (9.50):
Kd 4d Jc

Villain bets $6, Hero raises to $22, MP calls $22, BTN folds, Villain raises to $80, Hero?

[AggJedi]

It seems like there's no way you're behind right now. I would rather just get it in now. Than worry about a scare card coming and having to fold your hand. I can see your logic for calling, but i'd rather just shove.

[Cue-Ball 66]

You can't be positive he has a flush draw.

Just push.

[CybrPunk]

This is a pretty easy shove. Get the money in now before a scare card falls and you can't get paid by the worst part of his range anymore.

Board: Kd 4d Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.246% 20.25% 00.00% 34275 0.00 { JJ+, AKs, AdJd, AdTd, KTs+, QdTd, AKo, KJo-KTo }
Hand 1: 79.754% 79.75% 00.00% 135015 0.00 { 44 }

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is very good thinking player, and has been leading with these blocking bets all night with his draws. My read on Villian is that he is on a flush draw, and my thinking is to give him exactly bad enough odds to draw, while enticing him with thoughts of implied odds.

Then MP calls, and my whole plan goes to hell. Thoughts on flop play. I understand that shoving isn't necessarily wrong, but is calling > shoving because I can get away from the hand when/if [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the turn?

The hand:

$0.50/1.00 NL hold' em, 6-handed

Pot is straddled for $2

UTG folds, Hero calls $2 with 4h 4s, MP calls $2, CO folds, BTN calls $2, SB folds, BB folds, Villain checks

Rough stack sizes:
Hero $400
Villian $280
MP $150
BTN $120

Flop (9.50):
Kd 4d Jc

Villain bets $6, Hero raises to $22, MP calls $22, BTN folds, Villain raises to $80, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]
A) Lead is 2/3 pot in an unraised pot. That does not constitute a blocker bet, nor does it signify that most of his range is a FD.
B) Once he puts in the big re-raise it's even less likely he has a flush draw (especially if he's any good), unless it's a big combo draw like QdTd.
C) Read hands better
D) Raise pre
E) Just calling the re-raise is OK, but not so you can get away when a diamond falls, but to extract more money from what is almost definitely a worse hand. The only effect a diamond falling has is that he might not pay you off with his vastly inferior hand, as the diamond might kill the action, whiich argues for getting it in on the flop.

[thac]

Oh dear god. Yeah, call his raise and fold if a diamond hits. Good plan.

[keikiwai]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh dear god. Yeah, call his raise and fold if a diamond hits. Good plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're a favorite vs a FD, so if he's willing to get it ai on the flop that's massively better than folding on the turn......

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oh dear god. Yeah, call his raise and fold if a diamond hits. Good plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're a favorite vs a FD, so if he's willing to get it ai on the flop that's massively better than folding on the turn......

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll e-mail you my sarcasm detector [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[keikiwai]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oh dear god. Yeah, call his raise and fold if a diamond hits. Good plan.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're a favorite vs a FD, so if he's willing to get it ai on the flop that's massively better than folding on the turn......

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll e-mail you my sarcasm detector [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, i quoted you cause i was agreeing

w/ your sarcasm

[thac]

Sick, I'm too tired