Pushing with Big draws, are these spews?

schick · #1 03-01-2006, 02:00 AM

I'm really not certain I have folding equity in these spots. I know many of you advocate shoving in these spots, but I'm questioning if it's right or not. It's probably just because I'm running bad. I've shoved with AKs, AQs, and combo draws approximately 12 times, and have been called by TP twice, had 2 folds, and been called by sets the other 8 times. Are these two spots places where I should shove, or simply call?

In both hands I have no real reads on Villians, I have not played with them before and have only been at the table for one or two orbits.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP1 ($262.80)
MP2 ($550.35)
MP3 ($182.55)
CO ($381.55)
Button ($204.85)
Hero ($204.75)
BB ($208)
UTG ($219.60)
UTG+1 ($292.60)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls $2, 1 fold, MP3 calls $2, 1 fold, Button calls $2, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets $9, BB folds, MP1 raises to $18, MP3 folds, Button calls $18, Hero raises to $202.75, MP1 calls $184.75, Button calls $184.75.

Turn: ($618.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets $2, Button calls $0.10 (All-In).

River: ($620.35) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $620.35

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB ($32.80)
UTG ($44)
UTG+1 ($253.30)
MP1 ($118.45)
MP2 ($293.45)
MP3 ($30.40)
CO ($210.85)
Button ($90.65)
Hero ($202)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 raises to $4, CO calls $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $3, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($16) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $6, MP3 folds, CO raises to $12, Hero raises to $198, BB calls $22.80 (All-In), CO calls $186.

Turn: ($440.80) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($440.80) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $440.80

Thanks for any ideas. I'm pretty sure I've just had horrible luck in these spots, as I keep running into sets and that moving in is the best option. However, if the opponents do have sets in pots like this, then simply calling and seeing a turn would be a better option since they are laying me such great odds.

#2 03-01-2006, 02:15 AM

hand 2 is goot

whittiphil · #3 03-01-2006, 02:37 AM

hand 1 is perfect with 2 callers. Love this long time everyday. Yeah it sux when you don't hit, but whatever.

#4 03-01-2006, 03:39 AM

actually, I changed my mind for hand 2

lead=>3bet all in is much better here...do you see why?

TheStation · #5 03-01-2006, 03:45 AM

I like both hands.

Hand 1: Only thing I hate here is doing it when the pair I have is top pair. This is mainly becuase AQ is calling and it gets rid of my 2 outs to hit trips. I prefer 2nd pair w. 4 flush (or Ax with nut flush). This is becuase in your spot you expect to have 9 flush outs + 3 ten outs so 12 which is <50% to hit, if your pair is live on trips then you have 14 outs which is right on that 50% line so with fold equity, i love it

Hand 2: I love this OESD + 4 flush, rocks, get those chippies in there, you have 9 flush + 6 straight outs, so 15 outs, >50%, only thing you dont want to see is a set as you lose 2 of your flush outs

kotkis · #6 03-01-2006, 04:08 AM

I always feel akward doing this in a limped pot. I think the reason is because the stack sizes relative to the pot size on the flop are much bigger, so getting 100xBB in becomes more troublesome. There are also a lot more hand combinations out there that can make a premium hand so I think you are getting called more often in these spots when the pot is limped multiway.

schick · #7 03-01-2006, 04:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
actually, I changed my mind for hand 2

lead=>3bet all in is much better here...do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely agree this is probably a better line; since mp3 raised and was short stacked preflop he's probably pushing or reraising regardless which will trap more money in the pot if villian 2 calls. The way i played it, he might fold all his weaker hands here. I usually do lead out in this situation, for some stupid reason I chose not to here.

schick · #8 03-01-2006, 04:32 AM

I agree about the limped pot part since hands are less clearly defined, there could be alot more 2 pair combos out there. However, A pair+flush draw usually has decent equity vs 2 pair hands i.e. QcTc on a Q83 board is 45% vs. Q8. That's just slightly worse than getting it in Vs AQ. In addition, sets would probably still be there in a raised pot. The thing that seems much better to me in a raised pot is the fact that the pot will be bigger on the flop, and will have more money in to even out the equity differences. So would you recommend just calling the flop and seeing a turn in hand 1? Hand 2 this is obviously not an option.

In hand one, I was up against bottom set, and AcKc, which sucked. And In hand two I was up against bottom set and AT, and sucked out.

jacknine · #9 03-01-2006, 06:23 AM

've got a couple of questions...

My understanding was that pushing draws is profitable because of the times you make your opponent fold.

In a multiway hand, isn't the chance you get all opponent to fold rather small? Isn't it more profitable to bet/call in this instance (hand 1) and get paid when you actually do hit?

In a full-ring, isn't this play pretty risky unless you draw to the nut flush?

Also, isn't pushing $200 into a ~$50 taking this whole idea a bit too far?

Anyway - what about check-raising the flop and pushing the turn, regardless? I think a push would make more sense in those instances in relation to the size of the pot ...

Thremp · #10 03-01-2006, 01:05 PM

You're massively over-betting the pot. Do you play your sets like this?

Then don't play you huge draws like this.

Play to your stack size. Either figure out if you can C/R the flop all-in, bet/3-bet AI, or if they call have a PSB or slightly oversized on the turn to generate some FE if you hit or not.